At the time of writing, the odds provided by BetOnFighting were as follows.
+215 Michael Bisping vs Rashad Evans -275
+125 Thiago Silva vs Houston Alexander -155
+120 Joe Doerksen vs Ed Herman -150
+275 Ryo Chonan vs Karo Parisyan -345
-115 Spencer Fisher vs Frank Edgar -115
+150 Chris Lytle vs Thiago Alves -180
+450 Jason Reinhardt vs Joe Lauzon -600
+350 Luke Caudillo vs Marcus Aurelio -450
+215 Tamdan McCrory vs Akihiro Gono -275
UFC 78 is upon us! It’s been dubbed “Validation” which is a fancy word for “making something official.” I’m not quite sure what we’re making official with this card other than I swear itâ€™s going to be the longest running commercial for UFC 79: Nemesis ever. I expect Dana to pull out all the stops in hyping the upcoming December event and Validation is a great way to start. I also hear that some of you are disappointed with the UFC 78 fight card, but let’s not let that get in the way of the amazing knowledge that I’m about to drop on you.
HOUSTON ALEXANDER vs THIAGO SILVA
Alexander is known for one thing, his power. Just ask Sakara. Or even ask The Dean of Mean, who woke up from his fight with Alexander in the rafters after catching a shoryuken uppercut to the chin. No one doubts that Alexander throws harder than most we’ve seen lately. Only problem is, we haven’t seen much of him and certainly we have no idea how good he really is on the ground.
That’s where Thiago Silva comes in. I think Silva will test Alexander and hopefully put Houston on his back so we can see what type of grappling pedigree he has. I actually like Silva in this fight and if he comes in with a good game plan, he has a great chance of answering the question of, “just how good is Houston Alexander?”
Then again, if Silva comes in and tries to trade punch for punchâ€¦ well, letâ€™s just say he wonâ€™t be the first Silva from Chute Boxe to take a canvas nap this year.
MICHAEL BISPING vs RASHAD EVANS
So here it is folks, a TUFfers delight. Two TUF champions finally getting into the cage to see whoâ€™s the toughest of the TUF.
Evans will be again trying to prove that heâ€™s an exciting fighter and comes in with some added confidence and big fight experience after his draw with Tito.
Bisping, on the other hand, will be hungry for a win after coming off a recent loss to Matt Hammâ€¦. wait a second, scratch that.
Iâ€™m not really sure who to pick in this match up and therefore Iâ€™ll do what Iâ€™ve always done in tough decisions like theseâ€¦ consult the great songs of Mary Poppins. And what would she tell us? â€œA spoonful
of Sugar helps the medicine go down.â€
And therefore, Sugar puts the Count on the floor and works him. The judges might attempt to hand Bisping another victory but itâ€™ll look strange seeing Big John trying to hold The Countâ€™s hand up while Bisping lays flat on his back unconscious.
KARO PARISYIAN vs RYO CHONAN
Donâ€™t expect a slugfest and donâ€™t expect a knock-out in this one. This fight will go to the ground, stay there, and most likely the decision will be put in the judges hands. We could be in for some great judo throws and I expect to see some fireworks since Karoâ€™s long-time best buddy, Nate Diaz, will be in â€œThe Heatâ€™sâ€ corner to cheer him on.
As for Chonanâ€¦ gravity defying sub aside, the Piranhaâ€™s in hot water in this one. I called Chonan personally to ask him to try another flying heel-hook but he didnâ€™t return my phone calls, or my letters, or my notes
on his car, or even my late night visits. All I got was a letter from his lawyer and now I apparently canâ€™t watch this fight within 30 yards of the Piranha.
Regardless, I see Karo winning this battle, and I do think it will be a war. Chonan was a good signing for the UFC and hopefully weâ€™ll see him at his best, in which case both fighters will be in for a long night.
Unfortunately, I don’t see much profit to be made at UFC 78. None of the underdogs seem to have much of a chance, in my mind.
I like Spencer Fisher to beat Frankie Edgar. Edgar is solid fighter with recent victory over Tyson Griffin, which says alot about his ability. Griffin’s ground game is very good and he could end up with a decision, but I think that Fisher is just a better “fighter.” I have watched Fisher develop an interesting attack to go along with a very athletic-style defense, what does that mean? He simply does what it takes to get himself in position to control the fight. Fisher wins what should be a great fight to watch.
Thiago Alves and Chris Lytle are very similar fighters, in that they both have struggled when opposed by quality opponents. Thiago is still learning and he should benefit from each of those losses. He’s only 24, with his best fighting still ahead of him. Lytle is a true pro and we know what to expect from him on Saturday night, but he will struggle against the faster and stronger (read younger) Alves. Easy win for Thiago.
Rashad Evans should handle Bisping easily in what should be a replay of the Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera snoozefest. Bisping’s only true weapon is his ground n pound, but I cannot envision any scenario where he is able to take Rashad down and maintain control long enough to do any damage. Bisping’s punching is
too sloppy to give Evans trouble in the standup and Rashad will school him on the mat. Tough night to be “the Count.” The only thing I don’t like about Rashad are his odds. Mike’s picks
Well, this is a great card with some “compelling matchups” as a lot of experts like to say. Even the main event is a good fight - I think the fact that it is not quite main event quality is distracting people from that fact.
Having said that, the matchups are all close and consequently pretty hard to bet on. The one bet that jumped out at me was Joe Doerksen at +120. Doerksen is a guy who ran Nate Marquardt and Joe Riggs close, whilst he’s beaten guys like Kang, Cote, McGivern etc. I thought this was a good pick before I heard
that he’d already beaten Herman once before, so that solidified it for me.
Apart from that, Thiago Alves looks a decent bet (although not a great one). Lytle is a tough, tough guy, who’s only been finished once. The thing is, he’s also lost 13 times by decision and I think that will likely happen again here. Alves is more active and more powerful and I see him just peppering Lytle with more shots and out muscling him.
Rashad looks good in the main event and considering how heavily favoured he is amongst the fans, that’s incredible odds. The thing is, Rashad is a very hit and miss fighter and is on my list of “never bet for or against these guys”. In short, I’m not touching it with Mauro’s 25cm pole.
I also think I’ll have a little dabble on Spencer Fisher. I love Frank Edgar but I just have a feeling that Fisher will out strike him and stuff the takedowns. Not a big bet on this one though.
And last but not least Thiago Silva can have some of my good lovin too. I am just not sold on Houston Alexander at all and even though I’m not sold on Silva either, I’m going with a small bet on him. As soon as someone employs something resembling a gameplan in a fight against Mr Alexander, it should be the end of the hype.
The Fight Network broke the news at around 3pm ET on Thursday that Randy Couture has walked away from the UFC.
In saying goodbye to Couture, the UFC is losing it’s most recognisable personality, it’s biggest draw and their self proclaimed “greatest champion of all time”.
More importantly, Couture is a role model to many young fighters and his public vote of no confidence in the UFC could well be a watershed moment for the Company.
This will be an extremely difficult incident to spin. Champions don’t just disappear and whatever reason they give for his departure, the UFC and it’s management are going to look incompetent. Even if they made something up, Couture can speak for himself and when the mainstream media approach him for his side of the story, I doubt he will sugar coat it. He will state that the UFC failed to sign the best competition in the world and he will mention Fedor by name.
Generally the mainstream UFC fans are lazy and uninterested in the other organisations, but if Couture speaks they listen and this may well prick their ears enough to take notice of that pudgey Russian… “Feder Amliko or something… whut did he say?”
More importantly, this is the type of story that the mainstream media love. Termoil from within and what amounts to little more than backstabbing from Couture. No matter how frustrated he may be with the organisation, they have made him a household name and a very rich household name at that. If he really wanted to retire he could have done it more honourably than this but he chose to air his dirty laundry in public and take a swipe at the UFC management in the process. That says a lot and when you see some of the reasons why, it’s certainly hard to judge him for it!
“I’m tired of being taken advantage of, played as the nice guy and basically swimming against the current with the management of the UFC….I don’t feel like I get the respect I deserve from the organization
I think the final straw for me was meeting with White and Lorenzo (Fertitta, UFC co-owner) where they claimed I was the No. 2 paid athlete in the organization, which I know is a bold-faced lie,” Couture said. Polling other athletes, said Couture, he learned that his compensation — some $250,000 a fight with pay-per-view bonuses, according to the Couture camp — was nowhere near what other top UFC fighters were making.
“All us athletes are all pretty tightly intertwined,” he said. “You hear what other guys were paid signing bonuses and what other guys were paid on the record and off the record with bonuses. I’ve heard Chuck’s numbers. Tito’s numbers. Hughes’ numbers. Quinton’s numbers. Cro Cop, Wanderlei. I heard what they were offering Fedor, and it’s insulting.”. - Couture
Assuming Couture has a no-compete clause, meaning he can’t go to another organisation, then this is a manageable mini-PR-disaster. If Couture is somehow able to sign with another organisation, this is potentially the single most important event in the history of the sport and a living nightmare for the UFC.
I hope it is the latter but I would be very surprised if that is the case.
For the last year or so, whenever I think of the UFC’s management and in particular Dana White, I think of My Name Is Earl, along with the catchphrase “Karma - I’m just trying to be a better person”.
I am no hippy loon but I do believe in the concept of karma and I’ve always wondered whether Dana’s constant badmouthing, untouchable self confidence and balshy attitude was ever going to come back and bite them in the butt. Well for me this is the first indication that all within the UFC isn’t as rosey as they would have us believe.
Dana frequently states that “we look after our guys” but when one of the highest paid stars publically dismisses your company and walks away, that’s a huge kick in the teeth.
What’s more, whilst Dana frequently calls other organisations a bunch of amateurs, his own company is starting to look like a complete mess. With Sean Sherk’s positive drugs test, the UFC are now paying twofold for a complete lack of rankings and structure within their weight divisions. Two of their five divisions are Championless and neither have a clear #2 and #3 to fight for the title.
For years the UFC have done a very good job of managing on the move, throughout their immense growth. It appears that their house of cards, whilst lofty, is wobbling furiously. No doubt they are still the biggest and the best but that house of cards could do with a firmer footing and without the need for metaphors, perhaps Dana White should stop calling everyone under the sun a moron or a joke and start building relationships, instead of breaking them.
“Certainly there’s personal motivation for resigning and taking stand for myself,” he said. “If it sets a precedence that down the road requires athletes to be treated better than that’s icing on the cake.”
It says a lot that after a great event, Dana opens with this tirade
“Everybody has know for years what I feel about these goofy internet websites; I hate them. They’re biassed, crooked and there are a lot of bad things I could say about them but I won’t waste my time.
The rankings that they had were always baissed towards us, the reporting was always biassed towards us… Talking about, you know, fights that don’t make any sense… I tell you what. We’re the best in the business. Our matchmaker is the best, we put on the biggest and the best fights. Nobody knows how these fights are going to turn out. And anyone that fights in the UFC deserves to be here and you see it every time these fights happen.
The rankings are bullshit, they drive me crazy. If you come from Japan you’re automatically the number one of the world or the number 10, 9, 8 7, 6, ya know… and ever since the aquisition of Pride, we’ve proven that it’s all bullshit. Anyway, I’ve been dying to say that!”
Well, if you took time to read my article that I wrote a couple of days ago, I suggested that the UFC were more interested in putting one over on Pride than they were in promoting the Pride fighters as superstars and consequently making insane amounts of money. This is just further evidence of that.
Dana and the rest of the UFC management have been so annoyed for so long that they value sticking two fingers up at internet sites far more highly than promoting and building the Pride guys and I personally find it quite bizzare and disappointing for people who are meant to be such savvy businessmen. Pride guys have gone something like 1-7 now in the UFC and that is largely down to Joe Silva.
Sure, it looks like the UFC guys would have eventually come out on top (due to the steriods issue and because the seasoned UFC guys work harder on their cardio), but to obliterate the Pride legacy at such an early stage is absolute lunacy in terms of building hype and selling tickets.
It’s also worth noting the following from Dave Meltzer at Wrestling Observer. Link
Joe Silvaâ€™s truths were revealed when, with Rua still crumpled on the canvas, Mr. Silva came bounding over to the press area to say something to Wrestling Observer editor Dave Meltzer. While the very
fact that Mr. Meltzer was chosen for this mini-celebration is another feather in his journalistic cap, the greater truth was that Joe Silva was no ordinary matchmaker for this fight. Somewhere â€“ be it in his conscious or subconscious thinking â€“ Mr. Silva booked Griffin vs. Rua with the impressed hope of a Griffin victory. This was not the entertainment hope of a great fight or the business hope of making money in the present or future. This was the raw, trenchant hope of destroying the enemy. Joe Silva wanted Shogun Rua to lose in emphatic, spectacular fashion. That wish was granted.
What I’m getting at is this. Although the Pride legacy lays in absolute tatters and most likely the Pride guys were held in higher esteem than they deserved… be of no doubt - the slaying of Pride was not an organic process rather it was as manufactured as any storyline could possibly be in the sport of MMA. Joe Silva is indeed the best matchmaker in the business and has shown just how devastating a few carefully chosen matchups can be.
- And finally, just a quick footnote in anticipation. I am not a Pride nuthugger, I couldn’t care less either way. I just come from a marketing background and like to analyse things from a business standpoint.
- On and a note from that note. It’s “couldn’t care less”…. why do people say “could care less”? Do they not understand that means they DO care?
Nothing sells in combat sports like a rivalry. If thereâ€™s a hometown hero to root for then youâ€™re really talking big bucks. With that said, aside from the fact weâ€™ll never see another Pride event, are the UFC missing a trick by promoting the Pride brand so minimally? Sure, the UFC is doing great business as it is and UFC 75 did indeed set a new record on Spike TV, but has the collective Zuffa ego missed an opportunity to promote a rivalry of epic proportions?
Pride held itâ€™s last event on the 8th April, just 5 months ago. Since then, 4 former Pride fighters have made their octagon debuts, with one each at 70, 73, 74 and 75. Several more are due to fight in the next few months, whilst Paulo Filho has joined the WEC. The anticipated invasion has been less of a tidal wave and more of an uneventful trickle and whilst you canâ€™t account for Mirko losing 2 of 3 fights, the relative lack of impact from Prideâ€™s fighters is largely down to Zuffaâ€™s method of integration, their lack of promotion and indeed their matchmaking.
My question; given that Prideâ€™s acquisition is the single most important incident in the history of MMA, is this really the best Zuffa could have done? Individually they have given the fighters a small to moderate push but wouldnâ€™t the hype (and the subsequent revenue generated) be much greater if the â€œPride guysâ€ were marketed together?
Imagine the scene. Itâ€™s UFC 74. Zuffa acquired Pride just 4 months ago but no announcement has been made to the masses. Only the hardcore fans know that something big has been rumbling for months. Contracts have been signed but there has been no sight of Wanderlei, Shogun, Nog or Henderson. Only CroCop has made a solitary appearance in the UFC.
The event proceeds as usual but mid way through the PPV we cut to the big screen. Itâ€™s Dana White making an announcement at the Pride press conference in Japan. â€œThe only two companies that matter in this world are the UFC are Pride. But make no mistake about it, the UFC is coming here to kick your assâ€. Cut to a smiling Wanderlei Silva - â€œI donâ€™t think soâ€.
Excruciatingly loud music fills the arena, a highlight of brutal Pride knockouts plays on the big screen and to the Octagon march 10 of Prideâ€™s finest fighters. A mixture of cheers and boos in the arena, whilst at home the fans are either salivating or asking â€œwho the hell are these guys?â€ Either way people are buzzing.
Mirko CroCop, a man with his heart still firmly in Pride, announces the names of the new fighters who acknowledge the crowd en masse. â€œWeâ€™re here to prove who the best in the world really areâ€ one says. More cheers, more boos, more excitement, the lights go out and a group of new heroes take their seats at cage side for the rest of the show. The camera cuts back to Joe Rogan who mentions something about world class skills, whilst every MMA forum on the net spontaneously combusts.
With one simple but extraordinarily powerful introduction, you generate both an ingrained rivalry and great interest in a big group of fighters. By presenting the Pride guys as pseudo heel characters to the fans of â€œUltimate Fightingâ€, every fight is worth so much more. Forgive the pun but with every fight, thereâ€™s now pride at stake. Rather than having to sell Marcus Aurelio, Ryo Chonan or Fabricio Werdum on their own, the job is already done and in reality it gives many of these fighters far more pulling power than they could ever generate as an individual.
However annoying they may have been, Pride vs UFC threads have been the staple of internet message boards for years. Can you imagine how much money they could have made by transferring that debate to the TUF generation? So why didnâ€™t it happen?
1. The instinctive response is that promoting another brand is counter productive but is that really the case? By introducing the word Pride, are people going to start looking elsewhere for their MMA? In short, no they wonâ€™t. The fans know there are other organisations, they just donâ€™t care because King of the Cage isnâ€™t what people are talking about. The UFC remains the pre-eminent brand because it has become a cultural phenomenon; itâ€™s Ultimate Fighting that makes the news, not Mixed Martial Arts. Promoting a group of fighters from a now extinct organization isnâ€™t going to change that and the UFC bosses know it.
2. So were the UFC management simply too impatient? Now under contract to Zuffa are Shogun, Wanderlei, Filho, Henderson, Big Nog, Werdum, Chonan, Mirko, Aurelio and Nakamura but they were signed over an extended period of time. Is 4 months too long to wait for a memorable introduction? Of course it isnâ€™t. The welterweight division sits of hold for 8 MONTHS so TUF can manufacture some more low quality household names. Iâ€™m sure they could have held up the debuts of Big Nog, Werdum and Aurelio for long enough to promote the hype around the most important merger in MMA history.
3. Perhaps Zuffa felt the concept of Pride vs UFC was too â€œpro wrestlingâ€ in nature? Come onâ€¦ letâ€™s be serious. The UFC runs itâ€™s business entirely on a pro wrestling model and they are fully aware of that. Semi-manufactured feuds are the staple of the UFC and have done the best numbers time and time again.
4. Were Zuffa worried the Pride guys would come out on top in the Pride vs UFC battle? Possibly. How many â€œPride guysâ€ have they tried to build? How many have had gimmies? Mirko had one gimme but since then Zuffa have been unwilling to sacrifice their own names to build the hype. Most Pride fighters have been brought in to unfavourable matchups (Werdum, Aurelio, Henderson, CroCop vs Gonzaga) and Zuffa seem more than happy for them to be picked off one by one, thus validating the UFC brand.
So now after just 5 or so of these Pride vs UFC matchups, Sports Illustrated have stated without question that â€œPride was overratedâ€.
In reality, the UFC could have given these guys the Bisping/Huerta treatment and made them stars. They just chose not to. If Pride were now 4-1 instead of 1-4 vs the UFC, what would that Sports Illustrated article say? Less of an ego boost for the UFC of course but a hype article playing up these new contenders would certainly sell a lot more PPVs than one saying â€œthese new guys are basically all rubbishâ€.
The UFC cannot control the outcome of every fight but it appears that through their matchmaking, they have cut their nose off to spite their face.
5. Finally, moving on to what I believe is the main, all encompassing factor. Did the UFC think they were a big enough brand in their own right that they simply didnâ€™t need a promotional gimmick?
The Zuffa response appears to be grown men throwing a foosball table into a swimming pool and yet another â€œbeefâ€ between 2 individuals (Hughes and Serra). That can only last one fight and then the UFC will be looking for another story. Meanwhile, despite Dana White publicly lambasting the in house brawl on TUF5, they are heavily promoting more of the same for TUF6. Zuffa are clearly very good at what they do but are they just one trick ponies? Is that why they failed to make a spectacle of the Pride merger, stateside?
So what now?
Forgetting coulda, woulda, shoulda, what should the UFC do now to rectify the situation?
Zuffa have access to the Pride video library, so why have we only seen the odd highlight reel knockout? They look great but they also feel very distant and detached to fans who have never seen Pride. Put those same knockouts into a degree of context and they would mean so much more and would enable new fans to build some sort of connection to these fighters.
I was at UFC75 and when Dan Henderson walked to the octagon, most people were in the bathroom or getting the beers in. Moreover, I would estimate that 90% of the crowd had never seen one of his fights in full and quite frankly, a lot of people werenâ€™t that interested. To put it into perspective, he received less of a reception that Jess Liaudin â€“ a Frenchman training in America, who gets pushed as â€œEnglishâ€ just because he lived in London for a while.
The Solution? Why not produce a series of â€œPride Unleashedâ€ or perhaps more appropriately â€œUFC Unleashed: Pride specialâ€?
Present full fights under the UFC brand, cherry picking the ones that suit your promotional push. Show fighters only under contract and only in their highlight reel fights. Build familiarity and in turn build yourself a bunch of stars without them even having to fight. Risk free superstars, all paid for by DSE! They brought CroCop in as an unknown to the TUF generation expecting him to become a star, but he got decimated. Why take the risk when thereâ€™s a ready-made, boil in the bag solution?
However you look at it, the entire situation is bizarre. Zuffa paid a reported $65m for the Pride brand and although they removed the possibility of a competitor such as Ed Fishman taking up the reigns, they could have done a lot more.
For the first time they have illustrated a naive business approach that has cost them a lot of money. The reason? A feeling that theyâ€™re big enough without having to tap into Prideâ€™s brand for ready made superstars. In short, complacency and an over inflated ego.
Itâ€™s certainly not going to see their downfall but they have most definitely missed the boat on this one and itâ€™s a shame. No matter how contrived a Pride vs UFC saga would have been, if theyâ€™d done it properly, it would have been amazing to watch.