MMA Blog

March 25, 2010

UFC 111 Betting Pick: Carwin vs Mir

Filed under: MMA Opinions, UFC Predictions — MrRiddum @ 10:40 pm

Since his brutal loss at UFC 100, Frank Mir has been borderline obsessed with beating UFC Heavyweight Champ Brock Lesnar.

But at UFC 111, Mir faces a man who he believes to be even more dangerous in Colorado, native and undefeated contender Shane Carwin in what could be the most explosive fight the UFC has seen in months.

The fight, which will take place on Saturday night at 10 pm in Newark, New Jersey’s Prudential Center, is scheduled for five rounds because it is for the Interim Heavyweight Title, but most MMA fans think it’s pretty much inevitable this time around that either Mir or Carwin is going down hard.

In his last bout Mir showed improved power and striking in a big win over feared striker Cheick Kongo by rear-naked choke.

Mir has also been power lifting harder than ever in an attempt to put himself in the same stratosphere as huge heavyweights like Carwin and Lesnar.

He’s done a great job of packing on muscle, and it shows. However, it doesn’t help sports betting fans’ confidence when they see Mir deadlifting the same weight that Carwin power cleaned in their UFC Primetime preview show.

Carwin (11-0 MMA record) has carried around more weight than Mir for much longer, and despite the likely close weigh-in numbers between the two, Carwin will have a definite strength and wrestling advantage.

Even so, Mir (13-4) is a decent favorite at -155 to +125 for Carwin, the underdog, going in to Saturday’s title fight.

That’s because Mir is more famous, talks a good game, and has the experience in big fights and jiu-jitsu that Carwin lacks.

Carwin should be able to power out of most submission attempts, however. He was able to get up after Gabriel Gonzaga cornered him on the ground at UFC 96 through sheer power before knocking Gonzaga out, and Gonzaga is as good or better on the mats as Mir according to many fans.

All it takes for Carwin to win is one well-placed shot from his freakishly large hands to put just about anyone in MMA down and/or out, and Carwin will look for the big shot all night against Mir.

Mir’s striking has definitely improved, but his quickness is not going to be an issue for Carwin, and Carwin has the power to come out on top in most exchanges.

Carwin may not be the UFC betting favorite going in, but with his power and his history of winning every single fight early in the first round in his career, his history is too strong to ignore in this one. Mir is improving every day, but the fact of the matter is that Carwin is a larger, more powerful fighter and those are never bad attributes to bet on.

UFC 111 Betting Pick: Shane Carwin (+125).

November 17, 2007

UFC 78 Betting tipsters panel

Filed under: UFC Analysis, UFC Predictions — MrRiddum @ 3:59 am

Welcome again to the Fantasy MMA Betting League tipsters panel!

The Odds

At the time of writing, the odds provided by BetOnFighting were as follows.

+215 Michael Bisping vs Rashad Evans -275
+125 Thiago Silva vs Houston Alexander -155
+120 Joe Doerksen vs Ed Herman -150
+275 Ryo Chonan vs Karo Parisyan -345
-115 Spencer Fisher vs Frank Edgar -115
+150 Chris Lytle vs Thiago Alves -180
+450 Jason Reinhardt vs Joe Lauzon -600
+350 Luke Caudillo vs Marcus Aurelio -450
+215 Tamdan McCrory vs Akihiro Gono -275

The Panel

Mike (me) - of mmagame.com. Full time MMA fanatic.
Doug - proprietor of zewkey.com - the mma betting site.
Boondock - Awesome highlights maker and high flying tipster in our betting league.


Boondock’s picks

UFC 78 is upon us! It’s been dubbed “Validation” which is a fancy word for “making something official.” I’m not quite sure what we’re making official with this card other than I swear it’s going to be the longest running commercial for UFC 79: Nemesis ever. I expect Dana to pull out all the stops in hyping the upcoming December event and Validation is a great way to start. I also hear that some of you are disappointed with the UFC 78 fight card, but let’s not let that get in the way of the amazing knowledge that I’m about to drop on you.

HOUSTON ALEXANDER vs THIAGO SILVA
Alexander is known for one thing, his power. Just ask Sakara. Or even ask The Dean of Mean, who woke up from his fight with Alexander in the rafters after catching a shoryuken uppercut to the chin. No one doubts that Alexander throws harder than most we’ve seen lately. Only problem is, we haven’t seen much of him and certainly we have no idea how good he really is on the ground.

That’s where Thiago Silva comes in. I think Silva will test Alexander and hopefully put Houston on his back so we can see what type of grappling pedigree he has. I actually like Silva in this fight and if he comes in with a good game plan, he has a great chance of answering the question of, “just how good is Houston Alexander?”

Then again, if Silva comes in and tries to trade punch for punch… well, let’s just say he won’t be the first Silva from Chute Boxe to take a canvas nap this year.

MICHAEL BISPING vs RASHAD EVANS
So here it is folks, a TUFfers delight. Two TUF champions finally getting into the cage to see who’s the toughest of the TUF.

Evans will be again trying to prove that he’s an exciting fighter and comes in with some added confidence and big fight experience after his draw with Tito.

Bisping, on the other hand, will be hungry for a win after coming off a recent loss to Matt Hamm…. wait a second, scratch that.

I’m not really sure who to pick in this match up and therefore I’ll do what I’ve always done in tough decisions like these… consult the great songs of Mary Poppins. And what would she tell us? “A spoonful
of Sugar helps the medicine go down.”

And therefore, Sugar puts the Count on the floor and works him. The judges might attempt to hand Bisping another victory but it’ll look strange seeing Big John trying to hold The Count’s hand up while Bisping lays flat on his back unconscious.

KARO PARISYIAN vs RYO CHONAN
Don’t expect a slugfest and don’t expect a knock-out in this one. This fight will go to the ground, stay there, and most likely the decision will be put in the judges hands. We could be in for some great judo throws and I expect to see some fireworks since Karo’s long-time best buddy, Nate Diaz, will be in “The Heat’s” corner to cheer him on.

As for Chonan… gravity defying sub aside, the Piranha’s in hot water in this one. I called Chonan personally to ask him to try another flying heel-hook but he didn’t return my phone calls, or my letters, or my notes
on his car, or even my late night visits. All I got was a letter from his lawyer and now I apparently can’t watch this fight within 30 yards of the Piranha.

Regardless, I see Karo winning this battle, and I do think it will be a war. Chonan was a good signing for the UFC and hopefully we’ll see him at his best, in which case both fighters will be in for a long night.

So there it is! Have fun watching the fights, tip your waitresses, and make sure and watch my new HL video: http://youtube.com/watch?v=FQeq9SLyFOI

Long Live MMA!
-Boondock


Doug’s picks

Unfortunately, I don’t see much profit to be made at UFC 78. None of the underdogs seem to have much of a chance, in my mind.

I like Spencer Fisher to beat Frankie Edgar. Edgar is solid fighter with recent victory over Tyson Griffin, which says alot about his ability. Griffin’s ground game is very good and he could end up with a decision, but I think that Fisher is just a better “fighter.” I have watched Fisher develop an interesting attack to go along with a very athletic-style defense, what does that mean? He simply does what it takes to get himself in position to control the fight. Fisher wins what should be a great fight to watch.

Thiago Alves and Chris Lytle are very similar fighters, in that they both have struggled when opposed by quality opponents. Thiago is still learning and he should benefit from each of those losses. He’s only 24, with his best fighting still ahead of him. Lytle is a true pro and we know what to expect from him on Saturday night, but he will struggle against the faster and stronger (read younger) Alves. Easy win for Thiago.

Rashad Evans should handle Bisping easily in what should be a replay of the Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera snoozefest. Bisping’s only true weapon is his ground n pound, but I cannot envision any scenario where he is able to take Rashad down and maintain control long enough to do any damage. Bisping’s punching is
too sloppy to give Evans trouble in the standup and Rashad will school him on the mat. Tough night to be “the Count.” The only thing I don’t like about Rashad are his odds.
Mike’s picks

Well, this is a great card with some “compelling matchups” as a lot of experts like to say. Even the main event is a good fight - I think the fact that it is not quite main event quality is distracting people from that fact.

Having said that, the matchups are all close and consequently pretty hard to bet on. The one bet that jumped out at me was Joe Doerksen at +120. Doerksen is a guy who ran Nate Marquardt and Joe Riggs close, whilst he’s beaten guys like Kang, Cote, McGivern etc. I thought this was a good pick before I heard
that he’d already beaten Herman once before, so that solidified it for me.

Apart from that, Thiago Alves looks a decent bet (although not a great one). Lytle is a tough, tough guy, who’s only been finished once. The thing is, he’s also lost 13 times by decision and I think that will likely happen again here. Alves is more active and more powerful and I see him just peppering Lytle with more shots and out muscling him.

Rashad looks good in the main event and considering how heavily favoured he is amongst the fans, that’s incredible odds. The thing is, Rashad is a very hit and miss fighter and is on my list of “never bet for or against these guys”. In short, I’m not touching it with Mauro’s 25cm pole.

I also think I’ll have a little dabble on Spencer Fisher. I love Frank Edgar but I just have a feeling that Fisher will out strike him and stuff the takedowns. Not a big bet on this one though.

And last but not least Thiago Silva can have some of my good lovin too. I am just not sold on Houston Alexander at all and even though I’m not sold on Silva either, I’m going with a small bet on him. As soon as someone employs something resembling a gameplan in a fight against Mr Alexander, it should be the end of the hype.

UFC 77 Betting Summary

Mike: $25 Silva, $75 Doerksen, $25 Fisher, $25 Alves
Boondock: $5 Caudillo, $5 Reinhardt, $50 Parisyan, $25 Silva, $50 Evans
Doug: Fisher $40, Alves $40, Rashad $40

October 18, 2007

UFC 77 Tipsters panel

Filed under: UFC Predictions, MMA Betting News — MrRiddum @ 7:55 pm

Welcome again to the Fantasy MMA Betting League tipsters panel!

The Odds
At the time of writing, the odds provided by BetOnFighting were as follows.

+180 Rich Franklin v Anderson Silva -220
+150 Tim Sylvia v Brandon Vera -180
+190 Jason MacDonald v Yushin Okami -240
+110 Alan Belcher v Kalib Starnes -140
+275 Eric Schafer v Stephan Bonnar -345
+280 Matt Grice v Jason Black -350
+140 Alvin Robinson v Jorge Gurgel -170
+265 Forrest Petz v Josh Burkman -325
-210 Demian Maia v Ryan Jensen +170

The Panel
Mike (me) - of mmagame.com.
Doug - proprietor of zewkey.com - the mma betting site.
TheGarv - MMA prophet and funny man of YouTube fame.
Boondock - Awesome highlights maker and high flying tipster in our betting league.
TJ DeSantis - of Sherdog Radio fame.

TheGarv’s picks
UFC 77 promises to be explosive, and there are two fights that are a lock if you want to bet. The first lock is Vera over Sylvia. This is a fight you need to bet the farm on. Bet the farm, bet your house. Hell even bet your wife, because you can’t lose. Vera truly is the second coming of Fedor and he’s going to show the world on October 20th. I expect him to chop down Tim with leg kicks and overhand rights. Vera by KO round 2.

The second lock is Anderson Silva over Rich Franklin. I love Rich, he is one of my favorite fighters but he just doesn’t match up well with the Spider. After the brutal ownage in their first fight, I don’t see any way possible for Rich to win this. I think the second fight is going to look similar to the first, with Anderson dominating on the feet, and Rich unable to get it to the ground. I think Rich will last into the second or third round before being KO’d.

Those are TheGARV’s picks.

Boondock’s picks
UFC 77 is upon us and I have to admit that this is one of the harder cards when it comes to making my picks. Vera vs. Sylvia: I’d have to say this fight is a virtual crap shoot as to who’ll win… and as we all know, when it comes to crap shooting, never doubt Sylvia. However, I’m not so sure this time and neither fighter steps into the octagon with any momentum. Vera has been out of the cage for quite a while as has Sylvia after recovering from a back injury (that I’m sure was a result of not having the belt strap around to support him through his daily routine). So Ring rust vs. Back injury? I’ll take Vera but I don’t think it’ll be the walk in the park some are telling us. And Vera’s not the second coming of Fedor… only Fedor is good enough to be the second coming of himself.

Last time we saw Franklin vs. Silva we were shocked to see Rich going down faster than Tito’s girlfriend. And while I see Silva winning this fight I don’t see another Tyler Durden style beat down like we saw last time. What made that fight the train wreck that it turned into was Silva’s skill and an absolutely horrible game plan by Franklin’s corner… unless blocking Thai knees with your ribs and nose is some sort of Krav Maga defense gone wrong. All the same, I still think Silva wins this but I would bet someone else’s life (not mine) that Rich takes it to the ground to use his size to try and gNp a victory. He could get one. Then again, Rich could very well be getting another kneecap instead of a nightcap to help him sleep on fight night.
And finally the lock of the night: Okami.

Long Live MMA!
Boondock

TJ’s Picks
UFC 77 isn’t the strongest card of the year. Nevertheless, a few fights definately have the ingredients to make for some wars.

In the main event Rich Franklin looks to get his title back against current champion Anderson Silva. The first time these guys met Franklin was over-whelmed. The Ohio based fighter walked in to the clinch thinking he would find success there. Instead of success he found hard knees to the face.

For Rich to win he needs to fight smart. Franklin is a smart fighter and I expect him to look to trade at first and then get on the inside with underhooks. “Ace” needs to stay away from the knees and kicks of Silva. If he can do this I think that he can wear Anderson down and get the fight to the floor.

Unfortunatly for Franklin, Silva doesn’t allow that. Anderson will utilize the clinch again. Silva will land shots to the body and this will hurt Rich in the later rounds. I expect Anderson to hurt Rich through out the first couple of rounds. In the third Rich will score a takedown, get stood up, and Silva will stop Franklin again via TKO.

Sylvia Vera is a pickem in my opinion. Vera will look to land low kicks and use his speed. If he is successful I expect him to win a decision. One hard punch from Sylvia could end this fight. But I think Vera is smart enough and wins a decision.

UPSET PICK: Matthew Grice over Jason Black.

Black looked zapped in his fight with Thiago Tavares. If Black is anything like that Saturday night look for Grice to take this fight. At +240 you’re silly not to throw at least 50 on this fight

Mike’s picks
For me, the big pick of UFC77 is Brandon Vera. Now first off, let me say this is a pick that does leave me doubting myself somewhat. My justification is basically that he’s a lot more skilled than big Tim but then so (supposedly) was Andre Arlovski. Still, I am putting my doubts aside and going for the Truth, because after a pretty uninspiring debut against Fabiano Scherner, I have been very impressed. He’s polished off two of Sylvia’s former opponents (Mir and Silva) in 4 minutes combined and in general, I think he’s a superior fighter. REMEMBER, you don’t need to KO or sub someone to win a fight - you just need to beat them. Vera decision : leg kicks.

Secondly I’m going for Okami over McDonald. He’s just bigger and better with more power. I can’t see McDonald winning by sub (his only chance) and I can see Okami winning by either sub, decision or KO.

Silva over Franklin. I really don’t know how Franklin could win the fight. He’s just outmatched in every area. Sorry Rich but I don’t see any way you win and considering the way the last fight went, I can’t believe Silva is only -220.

Doug’s picks
I think UFC 77 is the best event for betting I have seen in a long time. If you are a true MMA fan, then the 4 main fights are all intriguing matchups.

I have strong opinions on three of the four, the exception being Starnes vs Belcher. Although I favor Starnes, both guys are talented but unproven in my eyes. So, I will take a pass on this one and invest in the other three.

Let’s start with the Championship fight. Here’s the deal. If you think Rich Franklin is the same fighter he was before the first fight (just as good now as he was then,) you have to bet him. 2-1 is a dream. I, however, believe that the beating Silva gave him that night ended the career of the championship level Rich Franklin. Silva has moved forward in his development as a complete fighter, while Franklin has fought to regain his confidence. You can make a case that Franklin is bigger and will take him down etc… but I see it as Silva is at a completely different level than Franklin, physically and mentally. I’m taking Spider.

Everyone hates Tim Sylvia, but I don’t get it. Sylvia is one of the most resilient fighters we have ever seen, he uses his strengths better than any fighter I can think of, and he’s a hard working fool. No way Vera should be favored over big Timmy. Even if you buy into all the Vera hype, that should make him about even up with the former champion-at best! Tim’s loss to Couture looks a lot better now that Randy tore through Gonzaga. Fighting styles will matter in this one. Expect Vera to have a similar plan that Couture used to defeat Sylvia, except more knees in close. Sylvia will be ready for it, and you can bet your last tater that he won’t fall into that trap again. Look for Sylvia to use his size effectively as he controls the pace. Sylvia will frustrate Vera and take him off his game. Easy win for Sylvia. Big Bet!!!

Okami is physically superior to Jason MacDonald. MacDonald lacks the crisp, effective punching that he will need to keep the Japanese mauler off him. The combination of a physically stronger fighter facing a submission fighter is a profit machine. Okami will bull his way to MacDonald’s chest whenever he feels like it, where he can take him down and gnp as long as he wants. Some say that Okami is a slow starter, but here’s the secret…Okami knows he’s strong enough to escape submission attempts once the fighter start getting sweaty. He keeps himself out of trouble until everyone’s good a warm, then goes to work. Bet Okami with confidence.

Best Bet: Tim Sylvia
Good Bets: Okami and Silva

Records (Starting balance $200)
TheGarv: 0-0 (0%) Balance $200 - making his debut
Mike: 42-18 (80%) Balance $390.52, Total Amount Bet $3690
Boondock: 32-43 (44%) Balance $1977.75, Total Amount Bet $3911
Doug: 19-13 (59%) Balance $233.85, Total Amount Bet $436
TJ DeSantis: 9-8 (53%) Balance $632, Total Amount Bet $1990
(see more stats in game)

UFC 77 Betting Summary for the Fantasy Betting League
Note: These bets don’t necessarily correspond to who the tipsters have picked in their summaries above.

TheGarv: $50 Silva, $50 Vera
Mike: $200 Silva, $80 Vera, $50 Okami
Boondock: $500 Okami, $50 Franklin, $25 Belcher, $150 Sylvia
Doug: $100 Sylvia, $50 Okami, $50 Silva
TJ DeSantis: $100 Sylvia, $100 MacDonald, $100 Grice

With thanks….
Thanks to the tipsters for taking part - please show them some love and visit their respective ventures.

Doug - visit zewkey.com for betting news.
TheGarv - check him out on YouTube .
Boondock - visit his myspace page
TJ DeSantis - check out the Sherdog Radio network Monday through Friday.

September 5, 2007

UFC 75 Videos

Filed under: UFC Predictions, UFC videos — MrRiddum @ 2:19 pm

UFC 75 Videos (Youtube Predictions).

Fight card

UFC 75 video predictions


MMA Girls give their UFC 75 predictions


Stephen Hawkings spoof UFC 75 video predictions


vicioussid gives his UFC 75 video picks


A newcomer in hattrickhockey gives his UFC 75 picks

July 3, 2007

UFC 73 Stacked Videos (Youtube Predictions)

Filed under: UFC Predictions, UFC videos — MrRiddum @ 7:35 pm

UFC 73 videos (youtube predictions)

Youtube’s finest give their picks and predictions

Full UFC 73 fight card
Nathan Marquardt Vs. Anderson Silva
Hermes Franca Vs. Sean Sherk
Rashad Evans Vs. Tito Ortiz
Alvin Robinson Vs. Kenny Florian
Heath Herring Vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Mike Nickels Vs. Stephan Bonnar
Diego Saraiva Vs. Jorge Gurgel
Drew Fickett Vs. Chris Lytle
Mark Bocek Vs. Frank Edgar


The Garv & Son give their prophecies


MMA Girls give their picks


Viscioussid sporting the sleveless look


The guy from CSI, sans the big hair


Some stoned guy, looking a mess

May 8, 2007

UFC 71 Video Predictions (You Tube)

Filed under: UFC Predictions, UFC videos — MrRiddum @ 1:30 am

You tube’s finest give their UFC 71 video predictions

Full UFC 71 card
Chuck Liddell Vs. Quinton Jackson
Terry Martin Vs. Ivan Salaverry
Josh Burkman Vs. Karo Parisyan
Houston Alexander Vs. Keith Jardine
Kalib Starnes Vs. Chris Leben
Thiago Silva Vs. James Irvin
Sean Salmon Vs. Eric Schafer
Jeremy Stephens Vs. Din Thomas
Carmelo Marrero Vs. Wilson Gouveia

Videos

ByronGiant shares his UFC 71 predictions and his lovely flowing locks, with the youtube community.
Vicioussid gives his UFC 71 predictions.
Gratefuljeff gives his Jackson vs Liddell picks. He’s not been getting a lot of love for his “theory”. See what you think. Honestly, he doesn’t seem too bright.
More to follow shortly.

April 19, 2007

MMA Betting Tipsters Panel - UFC 70

Filed under: MMA Opinions, UFC Predictions — MrRiddum @ 2:39 am

Welcome again to the Fantasy MMA Betting League tipsters panel!

Our regular duo make their picks as usual and we’re joined by William from Strictlymma.com… More than likely he’ll become a regular tipster, as long as he doesn’t show us up too much!
Our Panel

Regular tipsters
Mike (me) - of mmagame.com. Full time MMA fanatic and improving tipster.
Doug - proprietor of Zewkey.com. Top tipster and MMA betting expert.

Guest tipsters
William - of Strictlymma.com - The newcomer!

———

The Odds
At the time of writing in this very changeable market, the odds provided by BetOnFighting were as follows.

-450 Mirko CroCop vs Gabriel Gonzaga +370
-110 Fabricio Werdum vs Andre Arlovski -120
+500 Elvis Sinosic vs Michael Bisping -700
+225 David Heath vs Ryoto Machida -285
-205 Assuerio Silva vs Cheick Kongo +165
+100 Matt Grice vs Terry Etim -130
-150 Junior Assuncao vs David Lee +120
+150 Victor Valimaki vs Alessio Sakara -180
-200 Dennis Siver vs Jess Liaudin +160

———

Predictions
So on to the picks…

Doug’s picks
UFC 70 is a minefield for me.  There are several fighters getting heavy support from the MMA geeks, I’m not sure that any of them deserve it though.

I will start off with the main event.  I have been reading a lot about Gonzaga and his ground attack, how good he is, and if it goes to the ground he will dominate.  I’m not buying it.  CroCop wins this one easily.  CroCop is the kind of dependable favorite you look for, he dominates inferior opponents, ends fights effectively and rarely gets in trouble.  Mirko rolls and I’m going to make a small profit off him.

I’m not betting the Arlovski vs.Werdum match, but I think all the love for Werdum is a trap.  AA should be able to control this match standing, Werdum is going to have to inflict some damage standing before he can work his submission magic- Arlovski is not going to just lay down.  I don’t trust Arlovski, he has problems adjusting to the action, so I will pass.

I like Kongo to pull off the upset over Silva.  I think Kongo should be favored in this bout. I originally overlooked this fight, but one of our forum members started discussing it with me.  I value Kongo’s KO power more than Silva’s ground game.  Kongo will hold a significant fitness advantage that will allow him to escape Silva’s LnP in rounds 2 and 3.  Cheick has more weapons to end this fight than Silva.  He’s a solid underdog.

A lot of people have given up on or forgotten about Sakara after his loss to McFedries.  He’s a young guy, 26, that has good powerful striking and solid chin.  Sakara has had a rough time lately, but he’s been competitive against two good fighters and should show a big improvement Saturday.  Both these guys are looking for a quality win.  The Matrix will look to get the fight to the ground, but Sakara is good enough to hold his own on the mat.  Sakara holds a big advantage standing and that will be where this bout is decided.

Mike’s picks
Going in to this event, my picks were going to be Werdum, Kongo, Machida and maybe even a flutter on Gonzaga. However, as a proud member of the JT Warwagon I decided to watch a lot of DVDs last night and after doing so, I realised that my insticts were more than likely absolute crap.

CroCop vs Gonzaga
Now as I say I was thinking about having a little flutter on Gonzaga here. I’d been impressed when I watched him demolish Marrero in his last fight and that was a real pull. However, I went back and rewatched the fight and it was a good performance but there’s “impressive” and then there’s “impressive enough to beat the second best HW in the world”… It wasn’t the latter! With that in mind I think -500 is actually pretty decent odds. Gonzaga isn’t that big a HW and I see CroCop tossing him to one side if he even gets close enough to try a takedown.

Werdum vs Arlovski
Coming into this fight I was leaning towards Werdum. The forums were picking him and it made sense. He’d apparently faced better competition, he’d just owned Aleks and AA had shown below par takedown defense in his last fight with Pe De Pano. That all points towards a sub win for Werdum, so as I sat down to watch a selection of his fights I was expecting to convince myself of that fact. However after watching Werdum vs Overeem, Big Nog, Gonzaga and a couple of other fights, all I could think was that his standup just isn’t good enough. Don’t get me wrong, when he’s on the ground he has some SERIOUS SKILLS but this isn’t the ADCC, this MMA and Arlovski hits like a truck!
Werdum can’t hurt Arlovski on the feet. People say AA has a weak chin but that’s absolute crap. He’s been KO’d but they’ve been by absolute bombs, plus he’s been cracked right on the button by plenty of people from Sylvia to Zentsov and not gone down. At the same time, Werdum has only 1 KO on his record and watching his fights you can see why.
On the other side of the coin while Werdum’s chin is certainly OK, he’s no Mark Hunt. Big Nog may be a decent boxer but he has very few KOs on his record, and he dropped Werdum 3 times in their fight. With that said, AA can certainly hurt him standing and without having to worry about what’s coming back, I can see AA letting fly with some bombs. Werdum moves well on his feet though so I can certainly see it lasting a good distance into the fight and hey… I can totally see a Werdum sub if it goes to the ground. What I can also see is AA managing to stall long enough for them to be stood back up though and as the fight wears on I think Werdum is more and more likely to end up flat on his backside with a big hairy man pounding him in the face.

Machida vs Heath
I’d never seen Heath before but conventional wisdom says that the UFC will eventually want Machida to step up and become a challenger, given his impressive list of victims. What I always like to remember in this situation is that the UFC picks these matchups… If they wanted to hand out a first loss to Machida, it would certainly be to a more recognisable name than David Heath. Again though, after finding a video of David Heath to watch, I was actually impressed. He looks to have good, powerful and relaxed standup… however he is really, really open to front leg kicks. Machida is going to chop him down until he can barely walk and once that happens it doesn’t matter how relaxed his standup is, he’s going to take a beating.

The rest of the card….
I wanted to bet on Kongo because Silva has looked ropey in his short UFC career to date. The problem is the more I think about that fight the more stupid that bet sounds. Silva will win but I’m not sure enough to bet on it.
I think I may also chuck a few dollars on Terry Etim. I’ve never seen the guy fight but I’ve heard good things about him and when the lines opened there was clearly some action on him. When that’s the case on an undercard bout that virtually nobody knows about, it’s got to mean something.

William’s picks
UFC 70 is a pretty lop sided card (except for the Werdum - Arlovski fight) and also features some relatively unknown fighters on the undercard. The key to betting on this card is to find an underdog that you’re comfortable with and let it ride. If you personally are familiar with any of the undercard fighters, you have a chance to make some money at this event but I’m just going to stick to the main card.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic
Even with Serra’s surprising upset victory over Georges St. Pierre fresh in everyone’s memory, it seems no one wants to step up and pick Gonzaga in this fight. The odds makers have Gonzaga at +370, which makes him a sizeable underdog, however it’s not as overwhelming as some would have predicted. Gonzaga really only has one way to win this fight and that is by establishing dominant position on the ground and working strikes from the top. Even with Gonzaga being an expert in Jiu Jitsu, it’s really hard to see Cro Cop getting submitted from the top as he looks as athletic and strong as ever.

So, is there a good enough chance of Gonzaga being able to take Cro Cop down that you should risk your money and pick the underdog? In a word, “no.” Gonzaga’s weakest part of his game is his takedowns and he’s going up against a man who has quite possibly the best takedown defense in all of Mixed Martial Arts. Even though we are in the year of the upset, I fully expect Cro Cop to win this fight by knockout.

David Heath vs. Lyoto Machida
Machida was originally scheduled to face Forrest Griffin, who had to withdraw due to an injury. In my opinion, Machida is getting a tougher challenge in David Heath. With Griffin, Machida was pretty much guaranteed a stand up war that I believe he was very capable of winning. However, Heath’s strong point of his game is wrestling and we haven’t seen much Machida’s takedown defense or ground work in his young career. Heath comes in at +285 and may be an underdog that warrants serious consideration.

Elvis Sinosic vs. Michael Bisping
Poor, Elvis Sinosic. The guy just never gets an easy fight in the UFC. After beating Jeremy Horn in his UFC debut, he has lost to Tito Ortiz, Evan Tanner, Babalu, Forrest Griffin, and Alessio Sakara. This time he takes on hometown favorite Michael Bisping in another fight that he is seemingly supposed to lose. The odds makers have recognized this and put Sinosic at +500. This surprised me to some extent because Bisping really showed poor takedown defense in last fight with Eric Schafer. Although Bisping won that fight, I felt his exposed a area of his game that needed improving. It might not be such a bad idea to take a chance on Sinosic, especially since the odds are so good. If Elvis can get inside, he may be able to take Bisping down and hold him there. However, if we know Elvis, he’ll charge in with his chin up high and be in for a short night. (Shameless plug): Check out http://www.strictlymma.com/’s interview with Sinosic up now.

Fabricio Werdum vs. Andrei Arlovski
This is by far the most competitive fight of the card and the odds reflect it. Both fighters come in a -115, so you’re getting pretty close to even money regardless of which way you go. Personally, I will put my money on Arlovski. I think Andrei has a huge advantage in the striking department and submission defense has never been a problem for the Pitbull. All of Arlovski’s losses have come to fighters who were able to outstrike him, namely Tim Sylvia, Pedro Rizzo, and Ricco Rodriguez. Werdum’s main strength is his Jiu Jitsu, but I just can’t see him submitting Arlovski.

Cheick Kongo vs. Assuerio Silva
It seems like just yesterday the Cheick Kongo bandwagon was full of MMA fans confident that the French fighter would be the next Heavyweight champion. One disappointing decision loss later, and Kongo is put at +195 against journeyman Assuerio Silva and rightfully so. Unless Kongo has improved his ground game and takedown defense immensely, he should be in for a long night spent on his back. I use the word,. “should” because Assuerio Silva is notoriously known for having bad game plans. The only way I see Kongo winning this fight is if Assuerio tries to stand with him. However, if Silva chooses to implement his superior grappling game, he should be able to get a submission or decision win.
———
Summary of picks
The following bets have been placed in our MMA Fantasy Betting League. All users start with a fantasy balance of $200. You can join for free here.

Doug from Zewkey.com
Current Balance $223.50
Current record MMA 8:3
Current record UFC 3:2

CroCop $12
Kongo $12
Sakara $12

Mike from MMAGame.com
Current Balance $429.44
Current record MMA 25:5
Current record UFC 9:2

$100 on Arlovski
$50 on CroCop
$50 Machida
$50 Etim
William from Strictlymma.com
Current balance $200
Current record 0:0

David Heath $40
Elvis Sinosic $10
Andre Arlovski $50
—-

Last tipster panel event - Ultimate Fight Night 9

Mike went 3/3 and Doug scored 2/3.

Mike: $69.75 profit off $150 of bets
Doug : $1.90 profit off $30 of bets - don’t spend it all at once!

—-
Bet for real!!!!
If you’re feeling confident and you want to bet for real, please use one of the following links.

BetOnFighting - where we take our odds from
Sportsbook
- massive online sportsbook
Bodog
- still accepts US residents for sports betting, poker and casino play.

April 16, 2007

UFC 70 Video Predictions (You Tube)

Filed under: UFC Predictions, UFC videos — MrRiddum @ 2:50 pm

Video previews for the upcoming UFC 70 card. A selection of youtube’s finest giving their UFC 70 picks.
UFC 70 Card in full

Mirko Filipovic Vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
David Heath Vs. Ryoto Machida
Michael Bisping Vs. Elvis Sinosic
Andrei Arlovski Vs. Fabricio Werdum
Assuerio Silva Vs. Cheick Kongo
Matt Grice Vs. Terry Etim
Junior Assuncao Vs. David Lee
Victor Valimaki Vs. Alessio Sakara
Dennis Siver Vs. Jess Liaudin
Edilberto Crocota Vs. Paul Taylor

Borislav Chorni - UFC 70 Predictions

UFC 70 Nations Collide Predictions

UFC 70 predictions from ashice1
MMA Girls give their UFC 70 predictions

A dude with big hair gives his UFC 70 picks

April 5, 2007

UFC Fight Night Betting Tipsters Panel

Filed under: UFC Predictions, MMA Betting News — MrRiddum @ 7:40 pm

Welcome again to the Fantasy MMA Betting League tipsters panel!

Just a quick one for UFC Fight Night 9, with the regular deadly duo but no guest tipsters this time around.

Our Panel
Regular tipsters
Mike (me) - of mmagame.com. Full time MMA fanatic but mediocre tipster.
Doug - proprietor of Zewkey.com. Top tipster and MMA betting expert.

———

The Odds
+130 Melvin Guillard vs Joe Stevenson -150
+385 Justin McCully vs Antoni Hardonk -465
+170 D Mishima vs Kenny Florian -200
+110 Forrest Petz vs Kuniyoshi Hironaka -130
+200 Seth Petruzelli vs Wilson Gouveia -240
+140 Keita Nakamura vs Drew Fickett -160
+235 Naoyuki Kotani vs Thiago Tavares -275
———

Predictions
So on to the picks…

Doug’s picks
UFN 9 has some competitive fights on the card. There are a lot of lesser known fighters mixing it up and the true MMA geeks, surely, have the opportunity to make some money. All these fights have playable numbers. I’m going to stick to the headliners on this event. Joe Stevenson vs Melvin Guillard:
It’s the classic matchup of the striker vs the wrestler, and the “showboat” against the “blue-collar” guy. Any half-ass MMA fan/bettor can make a case for either fighter to win this bout. Styles are important, sure, but this fight will be determined by which fighter can impose his style on the other. Guillard is the faster, quicker fighter without doubt. I don’t like Joe at 155, and I think that he will be surprised to find Guillard holding the strength advantage too. Melvin will dominate the fight standing and when/if Stevenson gets the takedown Guillard will be able to gain control of the ground game too. Guillard’s powerful combination of strength and quickness will be too much for Joe. Note: I am aware of the “Melvin’s not training hard” rumors, I don’t buy it.

Dokonjonosuke Mishima vs Kenny Florian
Kenny Florian steps back into the ring for the first time since his loss to Sherk. Florian is a dedicated professional and he will be a better fighter when he takes on Doko Mishima tonight. Mishima is not one of physically strong fighters that present problems to Florian. He does not have enough power earn Kenny’s respect. Florian should be able to control the stand up and overwhelm Mishima with his striking, softening him up enough to set up a submission.

Drew Fickett vs Keita Nakamura
Wrestling war. Both fighters prefer the submission game; Fickett has a slight edge in striking. Fickett has faced much better competition with several solid wins. K-Taro struggled against Larson, another wrestler, last time out and this could very well be deja vu all over again for him. Take it easy on this one, definitely could go either way. I like Fickett to earn a decision.


Mike’s picks
I think you could make a nice profit on this event if you knew what you were doing… Unfortunately I don’t think I’m quite there yet to risk the real mulah!

Seth Petruzelli vs Wilson Gouveia.
I’m picking Gouveia in this fight as my big bet for the evening. He’s only around -240 and at those odds I think he’s a great pick over Seth. He gave Keith Jardine a run for his money and as far as I can remember, Seth has not really showed anything at all in the UFC.

D Mishima vs Kenny Florian
I’m going with Florian here. I’m just not seeing how Mishima wins the fight apart from a UD and I think Kenny has just as much chance of winning a decision. Again I’m going for a favourite here but I’m aiming to prove that you shouldn’t always bet on the odds if you want to win some money! And to round that theory off….

Melvin Guillard vs Joe Stevenson
I’m taking Stevenson here at -150. Seems like good odds to me… I have to admit that I have been swayed somewhat (or more accurately I’ve had my opinion re-affirmed) by the messageboards and tales of Melvin training with kickboxers and being taken down at will by rookies. I’m going with Joe but I think it’s going to be a good fight!

———
Summary of picks
The following bets have been placed in our MMA Fantasy Betting League. All users start with a fantasy balance of $200. You can join for free here.

Doug from Zewkey.com
Current Balance $223.50
$10 Florian
$10 Melvin
$10 Fickett
Mike from MMAGame.com
Current Balance $284.74
$100 on Gouveia
$25 on Stevenson
$25 on Florian

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Last event - WEC

Both Mike and Doug went 100% in the last event

Mike: $77.70 profit off $130 of bets
Doug : $23.50 profit off $20 of bets

March 26, 2007

UFC 69 Video Predictions (You Tube)

Filed under: UFC Predictions, UFC videos — MrRiddum @ 5:35 pm

A selection of youtube’s finest giving their UFC 69 predictions.

MMA Girls giving their UFC 69 picks.

The Phat UFC Critic giving his UFC 69 picks. He still can’t pronounce Thales Leites :)
viscioussid gives his picks.

menwello’s UFC 69 picks.

A man with a funny hat gives his UFC 69 shootout picks.

Beefdog’s UFC 69 picks. At first I thought his room was really messy but I think it’s actually just his duvet cover.

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