Jose Aldo is going in as the favourite in the fight against Frankie Edgar. I wouldn’t be the one to place money on Aldo. Aldo as much as he is a great all round fighter has always has questions about his cardio against someone like Edgar that could be a huge issue. Edgar is notorious for being able to take big damage and keep on going at the same lightning pace at the start of the fight. Edgars wrestling is also a factor in the fight. Aldo has great takedown defence but Edgar is very hard to predict and has taken down a lot bigger men than Aldo in the past. Edgars only real flaw against Aldo is the fact that Aldo can throw heat in his leg kicks that could really effect his speed and bounce. I would still say that Ben Henderson hits just as hard as Aldo with kicks and they didn’t really effect Frankie. That is not to say Aldo can’t beat Edgar but if you wanted value for money it would be Edgar i would be betting on. He is going off at 9/5 on some betting sites which is a steal considering the two very close fights he fought against Ben Henderson. Pretty good value for money if you put him on an accumulator.

Heavyweight Bout
Antonio Silva v Alistair Overeem

This fight here is one that i do believe the odds reflect the fight correctly for those interested in MMA Betting. Overeem destroyed Brock in his first fight in the UFC. He is a K-1 level striker with a good ground game and able to stop the takedown. Silva has a real problem on his hands here. After being brutally beaten down by now UFC Champion Cain Velasquez his last fight was less than convincing to most people. Silva is most known for his win over Fedor but that was quite a while ago now and since then he lost against Daniel Cormier and Cain Velasquez who are both at the top of the food chain as is Overeem so i would expect this to be one sided and ended inside of a round. As this is a heavyweight fight i would be betting on the KO finish and Overeem to be the one landing the shot to end it. Overeem ending it in the first round is going off at around Evens so that would be the bet i would take.

Light Heavyweight Bout
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira v Rashad Evans

Both fighters in this fight are coming off a long lay off from the octagon. Evans is coming off a loss to Jon Jones and Nogueria is coming off a win against Tito Ortiz. Evans in my book is the more accomplished fighter with the better skills and this reflects in his odds. He is a huge favourite against Nogueria and to be honest i can see why. Nogueira is a tough durable fighter but i feel his best years are behind him. He has the boxing and a great ground game when it comes to submissions but i really do believe his lack of speed is really going to hurt him against Evans. They could be a shock on the cards but i really do not believe this will be that shock. I have no idea if Nogueria can take the damage that Evans can dish out with his knockout power. I think Nogueria will survive Evans but lose a lopsided decision which is going off at 1/2 on most major betting websites.

Welterweight Bout
Demian Maia v Jon Fitch

Now this is a real pick’em fight. The best submissions in the UFC against the best submission defence in the UFC. Maia is 2-0 at welterweight and is looking to make a run for the title. He looked very impressive in his 2 fights. Maia has been really successful in his takedowns and the fight finishes not long after that. Fitch though has great submission defence to the point that trying to choke him out is just a waste of energy. Maia is at a completely different level when it comes to the ground game that Fitch has fought but it will be a test. This one could go either way between the two of them and Fitch is the favourite. If Maia is to win this fight i would say he would need an early submission which he has the skills to do. He is going off at 8/5 to win the fight and 4/1 to win via submission. Where as Fitch is going off at 2/3 for a decision victory. Its a pick’em and if you are really wanting to bet on it i would leave it off any accumulator you do but go for a 4/1 submission victory for Maia.

If i was to bet on it i would have a bet on Frankie Edgar to win, Overeem to win via KO, Evans to win, Joseph Benavidez to win and Jacob Volkmann to win.

Betting advice provided by dinoo at MMA Tycoon - The MMA Management Game

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Alternative view from Deadly Dirk

UFC 156 Preview

UFC 156 gets underway this Saturday live from the Mandalay Events Centre in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC 146 is perhaps the biggest card to date since UFC 100 and has some of the most high profile names in the sport competing including Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar, Alistair Overeem and Rashad Evans to name just a few. Let’s have a look through the fight card to see who might be puling out the wins tomorrow night.

Joseph Benavidez (16-3) vs Ian McCall (11-3-1) – Flyweight 125lbs

Kicking off the main show we have an outsanding matchup featuring two guys right at the top of the flyweight division. Benavidez will be looking to use his outstanding boxing and wrestling to impose his will on McCall who comes into the fight as the favourite at -227 with the bookmakers. Coming from Team Alpha Male, Benavidez also possesses one of the most lethal guillotine chokes in the game and would like nothing better to sink it in on his opponent, Uncle Creepy. Make no mistake though, Ian McCall is no joke and took the current champion Demetrius Johnson to a draw less than a year ago, it may just be that Benavidez does everything that McCall does just a little bit better making him the underdog at +220. One things for sure though, this should be a hell of a way to kick off the main card.
Prediction: Benavidez via Decision.

Jon Fitch (24-4-1) vs Demian Maia (17-4) – Welterweight 170lbs

Jon Fitch is one of the best wrestlers in the division who’s favourite way to win fights is to get on top of his opponent, break their will and grind out a victory. It may not be pretty at times but it’s hard to ignore the fact that it gets the job done. Maia however is not your normal grappler, he has some of the best Brazilian jui jitsu in the sport and has won numerous grappling tournaments around the world. He’s more than capable of cranking on an arm or finding a choke from the bottom position should Fitch apply his normal gameplan. Maia’s career stalled a little at the higher class of middlweight where he struggled against some of the larger wrestlers in the division, ever since dropping down to welterweight though he’s looked unbelievable, finishing both of his opponents quickly in the first round.

Often in these grappling matchups it can turn into a kickboxing bout with both guys very aware of their opponents ground game. If that is the case I would have to say that Maia has greatly improved his striking since joining the UFC and would most probably have the edge there. Maia definitely has the tools to win this bout but personally I have to go with Fitch who more times than not find a way to beat an opponent who at least on paper looks to have the edge in skill. Jon Fitch is currently the favourite in Vegas at -188 but you may well be tempted by the somewhat generous odds of +186 for Demian Maia.
Prediction: Fitch via Decision

Alistair Overeem (36-11) vs Antonio Silva (17-4) – Heavyweight 265lbs

Make no mistake about it, Alistair Overeem has some of the best kickboxing in the sport, depending on who you speak to some would argue he has the very best, period. Overeem has been competing in mixed martial arts since the late 90’s winning numerous titles including the Dream and Strikeforce heavyweight MMA titles, not to mention his European ADCC grappling and K-1 kickboxing title. Originally starting his career as a light heavyweight, Overeem made a move full time to the heavyweight division back in June 2007. He’s 12-1 since then with the sole loss coming over 5 years ago and the wins including high profile names such as Brock Lesnar, Fabricio Werdum, Mark Hunt and Brett Rogers.

His opponent will be Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva, a gargantuan heavyweight and a BJJ blackbelt who likes to use his grappling expertise to get the fight to the ground, work a good position and pound you out with the cement blocks that he calls fists, evident in his upset over Fedor Emilanenko a couple of years back and more recently against heavyweight up and comer Travis Browne.

Overeem will have a considerable advantage standing and should be able to pick Silva apart hoping to land that knockout blow that he’s done so many times in the past and comes into this bout as the -325 favourite. Overeem has greatly improved his takedown defence in recent years and should have the ability to keep the fight standing but you can be sure if Silva does manage to get on top of Overeem it’s going to cause him a lot of problems as one of the real questions remaining about Overeem is how will he handle adversity? Will he bounce back or will he perhaps crumble like he did earlier on in his career and make the odds of +325 for Silva look like an interesting bet?
Prediciton: Overeem via TKO (2nd Round)

Rashad Evans (17-2-1) vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5) – Light Heavyweight 205lbs

The former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans returns to the octagon to take on Little Nog in what the bookmakers see as a lopsided affair with Evans the -445 favourite and Nogeuira the underdog at +415.

Evans is one of the fastest guys in the division and should have the edge in striking against the technically sound Nogueira. You’d also have to say he has the power advantage and certainly has a big advantage in wrestling which should allow him to take down Nogueira at will if he chooses to do so.

Being a Nogueira brother though, the one thing Rashad won’t have over the Brazilian is heart and determination. You can be sure that unless Rashad gets the finish or the final buzzer goes, Lil Nog will be in this fight and will not bow out easily. He possesses some fantastic grappling skills himself and while her perhaps will not have the wrestling to get the fight to the floor himself he will look to attack at any opportunity should Evans decide to take him down. It’s hard to argue that Evans is not an overwhelming favourite in this fight but I do think the odds are a a generous, still I’d find it hard to bet against Evans in this one.
Prediction: Evans via Decision

Jose Aldo (Champion – 22-1) vs Frankie Edgar (15-3-1) Featherweight Title 145lbs

The main event features the Brazilian wonderkid Jose Aldo taking on New Jersey’s Frankie Edgar, a guy who never knows when to quit. Aldo has only lost once in his career and that was over 7 years ago at a small show in Brazil. Since making the move over to America and competing in the WEC and UFC he has been on a tear beating everyone in his path and often in spectacular fashion. At just 26 years of age the crazy thing is we probably haven’t even seen the best of Jose Aldo yet, a tenacious striker who probably has some of the best kicks in the world, something he puts down largely due to his soccer background. The only knock on Aldo in recent times has been a suggestion of poor cardio which was brought up after a win over Mark Hominick where Aldo crushed the challenger for 4 rounds only to take some big damage himself in the final round after the Brazilian tired. It was still a comfortable decision win for the champion though.

Frankie Edgar has recently dropped down to Featherweight, a more natural weight for his body size, after previously competing at Lightweight where he is a former champion. The main standouts from Edgar’s career up until now has been his impressive speed and cardio allowing him to get in and out on his opponents and really push the pace with his boxing and takedowns. The other thing that stands out is his ability to absorb punishment and somehow keep pushing forward and coming back even stronger, never more evident than his bouts with Gray Maynard.

This really should be an explosive affair and it’s one of those fights where anything could happen. Most would argue that the longer the fight goes it could favour Edgar with his cardio and heart but the biggest difference perhaps between Aldo and Frankie’s recent opponents is that Aldo is a finisher. If Frankie gets hurt like he has so many times before Aldo is not the sort of man to allow him to work his way back into the fight and will pounce at the earliest opportunity, combined with the deadly leg kicks that the Brazilian will be throwing Frankie may find it hard to show the same speed he has done so many times in the past. Frankie will give 100% as long as this fight continues but no matter how much he wants to come back against Jose Aldo, the champion may simply not allow him to do so. I’d find it very hard to bet against Frankie at the best of times but in this one I would have to go with the champion and favourite in Jose Aldo at -200. Those of you who love a good underdog story may want to side with Edgar at +190.
Prediction: Jose Aldo TKO (4th Round)

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Celebrities tend to endorse many products, meaning that they often get invites to the places that they act as an endorsement for. Casinos are one such brand that uses celebrity endorsement in order to sell their venues to the public, especially around the date of a big fight. If you see one of your favourite MMA Fighters on the side of an advert for a casino or a particular online casino such as OnlineCasinoAustralia.com.au, you will more than likely choose that venue over another establishment.

This is why there is so much money in advertising, and also why certain casino names are willing to pay out large sums of money in order to bag the celebrity they wish to act as the face of their label. MMA Fighters tend to be a popular choice when it comes to the advertisement of certain casino sites. This is possibly to do with the fact that MMA is huge in the betting world!

MMA Odds from Bet on Fighting.

BROCK LESNAR +115
ALISTAIR OVEREEM -145

NATE DIAZ +210
DONALD CERRONE -260

JOHNY HENDRICKS +190
JON FITCH -240

VLADIMIR MATYUSHENKO +265
ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON -325

JIM HETTES +195
NAM PHAN -245

JUNIOR ASSUNCAO +245
ROSS PEARSON -305

ANTHONY NJOKUANI +145
DANNY CASTILLO -175

Looking at the big event, I’m going with Overeem. That is with a little trepidation given his performance against Wedum - i.e. he got taken down rather too easily. However, we have a serious problem on the Brock Lesnar side in the form of his chin. I ask myself, will Brock finish Overeem if we go to the mat? Probably not. So we’ll have plenty of action on the feet and in those periods, Overeem is going to connect. He’s also going to get hit, so it’s not out of the reals of possibility that Lesnar hurts him but playing the percentages, I’d bet on Overeem as a narrow favourite.

In the co-main event it’s hard to see Diaz winning. Cerrone has been on a tear and I see him probably taking a decision. Not sure it’s worth a bet to be honest.

Hendricks vs Fitch I think is probably worth a bet on Fitch. It’s one of those fights that you start second guessing yourself because it seems so obvious. I mean, OBVIOUSLY Fitch will win, right? So we then have to over analyse everything and end up deciding that Hendricks has a chance. No, he doesn’t, Fitch is going to win. Worth a bet.

The rest of the card I’m afraid that I’m not confident enough to offer up much advice, other than get yourself on youtube and watch some fights from the underdogs. All the favourites are beatable fighters so if you think you can see any weaknesses, get on it. One of those guys will probably lose - you just have to pick the right one.

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Since his brutal loss at UFC 100, Frank Mir has been borderline obsessed with beating UFC Heavyweight Champ Brock Lesnar.

But at UFC 111, Mir faces a man who he believes to be even more dangerous in Colorado, native and undefeated contender Shane Carwin in what could be the most explosive fight the UFC has seen in months.

The fight, which will take place on Saturday night at 10 pm in Newark, New Jersey’s Prudential Center, is scheduled for five rounds because it is for the Interim Heavyweight Title, but most MMA fans think it’s pretty much inevitable this time around that either Mir or Carwin is going down hard.

In his last bout Mir showed improved power and striking in a big win over feared striker Cheick Kongo by rear-naked choke.

Mir has also been power lifting harder than ever in an attempt to put himself in the same stratosphere as huge heavyweights like Carwin and Lesnar.

He’s done a great job of packing on muscle, and it shows. However, it doesn’t help sports betting fans’ confidence when they see Mir deadlifting the same weight that Carwin power cleaned in their UFC Primetime preview show.

Carwin (11-0 MMA record) has carried around more weight than Mir for much longer, and despite the likely close weigh-in numbers between the two, Carwin will have a definite strength and wrestling advantage.

Even so, Mir (13-4) is a decent favorite at -155 to +125 for Carwin, the underdog, going in to Saturday’s title fight.

That’s because Mir is more famous, talks a good game, and has the experience in big fights and jiu-jitsu that Carwin lacks.

Carwin should be able to power out of most submission attempts, however. He was able to get up after Gabriel Gonzaga cornered him on the ground at UFC 96 through sheer power before knocking Gonzaga out, and Gonzaga is as good or better on the mats as Mir according to many fans.

All it takes for Carwin to win is one well-placed shot from his freakishly large hands to put just about anyone in MMA down and/or out, and Carwin will look for the big shot all night against Mir.

Mir’s striking has definitely improved, but his quickness is not going to be an issue for Carwin, and Carwin has the power to come out on top in most exchanges.

Carwin may not be the UFC betting favorite going in, but with his power and his history of winning every single fight early in the first round in his career, his history is too strong to ignore in this one. Mir is improving every day, but the fact of the matter is that Carwin is a larger, more powerful fighter and those are never bad attributes to bet on.

UFC 111 Betting Pick: Shane Carwin (+125).

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The Odds

At the time of writing, the odds provided by BetOnFighting were as follows.

+215 Michael Bisping vs Rashad Evans -275
+125 Thiago Silva vs Houston Alexander -155
+120 Joe Doerksen vs Ed Herman -150
+275 Ryo Chonan vs Karo Parisyan -345
-115 Spencer Fisher vs Frank Edgar -115
+150 Chris Lytle vs Thiago Alves -180
+450 Jason Reinhardt vs Joe Lauzon -600
+350 Luke Caudillo vs Marcus Aurelio -450
+215 Tamdan McCrory vs Akihiro Gono -275

The Panel

Mike (me) - of mmagame.com. Full time MMA fanatic.
Doug - proprietor of zewkey.com - the mma betting site.
Boondock - Awesome highlights maker and high flying tipster in our betting league.

Boondock’s picks

UFC 78 is upon us! It’s been dubbed “Validation” which is a fancy word for “making something official.” I’m not quite sure what we’re making official with this card other than I swear it’s going to be the longest running commercial for UFC 79: Nemesis ever. I expect Dana to pull out all the stops in hyping the upcoming December event and Validation is a great way to start. I also hear that some of you are disappointed with the UFC 78 fight card, but let’s not let that get in the way of the amazing knowledge that I’m about to drop on you.

HOUSTON ALEXANDER vs THIAGO SILVA
Alexander is known for one thing, his power. Just ask Sakara. Or even ask The Dean of Mean, who woke up from his fight with Alexander in the rafters after catching a shoryuken uppercut to the chin. No one doubts that Alexander throws harder than most we’ve seen lately. Only problem is, we haven’t seen much of him and certainly we have no idea how good he really is on the ground.

That’s where Thiago Silva comes in. I think Silva will test Alexander and hopefully put Houston on his back so we can see what type of grappling pedigree he has. I actually like Silva in this fight and if he comes in with a good game plan, he has a great chance of answering the question of, “just how good is Houston Alexander?”

Then again, if Silva comes in and tries to trade punch for punch… well, let’s just say he won’t be the first Silva from Chute Boxe to take a canvas nap this year.

MICHAEL BISPING vs RASHAD EVANS
So here it is folks, a TUFfers delight. Two TUF champions finally getting into the cage to see who’s the toughest of the TUF.

Evans will be again trying to prove that he’s an exciting fighter and comes in with some added confidence and big fight experience after his draw with Tito.

Bisping, on the other hand, will be hungry for a win after coming off a recent loss to Matt Hamm…. wait a second, scratch that.

I’m not really sure who to pick in this match up and therefore I’ll do what I’ve always done in tough decisions like these… consult the great songs of Mary Poppins. And what would she tell us? “A spoonful
of Sugar helps the medicine go down.”

And therefore, Sugar puts the Count on the floor and works him. The judges might attempt to hand Bisping another victory but it’ll look strange seeing Big John trying to hold The Count’s hand up while Bisping lays flat on his back unconscious.

KARO PARISYIAN vs RYO CHONAN
Don’t expect a slugfest and don’t expect a knock-out in this one. This fight will go to the ground, stay there, and most likely the decision will be put in the judges hands. We could be in for some great judo throws and I expect to see some fireworks since Karo’s long-time best buddy, Nate Diaz, will be in “The Heat’s” corner to cheer him on.

As for Chonan… gravity defying sub aside, the Piranha’s in hot water in this one. I called Chonan personally to ask him to try another flying heel-hook but he didn’t return my phone calls, or my letters, or my notes
on his car, or even my late night visits. All I got was a letter from his lawyer and now I apparently can’t watch this fight within 30 yards of the Piranha.

Regardless, I see Karo winning this battle, and I do think it will be a war. Chonan was a good signing for the UFC and hopefully we’ll see him at his best, in which case both fighters will be in for a long night.

So there it is! Have fun watching the fights, tip your waitresses, and make sure and watch my new HL video: http://youtube.com/watch?v=FQeq9SLyFOI

Long Live MMA!
-Boondock

Doug’s picks

Unfortunately, I don’t see much profit to be made at UFC 78. None of the underdogs seem to have much of a chance, in my mind.

I like Spencer Fisher to beat Frankie Edgar. Edgar is solid fighter with recent victory over Tyson Griffin, which says alot about his ability. Griffin’s ground game is very good and he could end up with a decision, but I think that Fisher is just a better “fighter.” I have watched Fisher develop an interesting attack to go along with a very athletic-style defense, what does that mean? He simply does what it takes to get himself in position to control the fight. Fisher wins what should be a great fight to watch.

Thiago Alves and Chris Lytle are very similar fighters, in that they both have struggled when opposed by quality opponents. Thiago is still learning and he should benefit from each of those losses. He’s only 24, with his best fighting still ahead of him. Lytle is a true pro and we know what to expect from him on Saturday night, but he will struggle against the faster and stronger (read younger) Alves. Easy win for Thiago.

Rashad Evans should handle Bisping easily in what should be a replay of the Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera snoozefest. Bisping’s only true weapon is his ground n pound, but I cannot envision any scenario where he is able to take Rashad down and maintain control long enough to do any damage. Bisping’s punching is
too sloppy to give Evans trouble in the standup and Rashad will school him on the mat. Tough night to be “the Count.” The only thing I don’t like about Rashad are his odds.
Mike’s picks

Well, this is a great card with some “compelling matchups” as a lot of experts like to say. Even the main event is a good fight - I think the fact that it is not quite main event quality is distracting people from that fact.

Having said that, the matchups are all close and consequently pretty hard to bet on. The one bet that jumped out at me was Joe Doerksen at +120. Doerksen is a guy who ran Nate Marquardt and Joe Riggs close, whilst he’s beaten guys like Kang, Cote, McGivern etc. I thought this was a good pick before I heard
that he’d already beaten Herman once before, so that solidified it for me.

Apart from that, Thiago Alves looks a decent bet (although not a great one). Lytle is a tough, tough guy, who’s only been finished once. The thing is, he’s also lost 13 times by decision and I think that will likely happen again here. Alves is more active and more powerful and I see him just peppering Lytle with more shots and out muscling him.

Rashad looks good in the main event and considering how heavily favoured he is amongst the fans, that’s incredible odds. The thing is, Rashad is a very hit and miss fighter and is on my list of “never bet for or against these guys”. In short, I’m not touching it with Mauro’s 25cm pole.

I also think I’ll have a little dabble on Spencer Fisher. I love Frank Edgar but I just have a feeling that Fisher will out strike him and stuff the takedowns. Not a big bet on this one though.

And last but not least Thiago Silva can have some of my good lovin too. I am just not sold on Houston Alexander at all and even though I’m not sold on Silva either, I’m going with a small bet on him. As soon as someone employs something resembling a gameplan in a fight against Mr Alexander, it should be the end of the hype.

UFC 77 Betting Summary

Mike: $25 Silva, $75 Doerksen, $25 Fisher, $25 Alves
Boondock: $5 Caudillo, $5 Reinhardt, $50 Parisyan, $25 Silva, $50 Evans
Doug: Fisher $40, Alves $40, Rashad $40

Read the rest of the article here

The Odds
At the time of writing, the odds provided by BetOnFighting were as follows.

+180 Rich Franklin v Anderson Silva -220
+150 Tim Sylvia v Brandon Vera -180
+190 Jason MacDonald v Yushin Okami -240
+110 Alan Belcher v Kalib Starnes -140
+275 Eric Schafer v Stephan Bonnar -345
+280 Matt Grice v Jason Black -350
+140 Alvin Robinson v Jorge Gurgel -170
+265 Forrest Petz v Josh Burkman -325
-210 Demian Maia v Ryan Jensen +170

The Panel
Mike (me) - of mmagame.com.
Doug - proprietor of zewkey.com - the mma betting site.
TheGarv - MMA prophet and funny man of YouTube fame.
Boondock - Awesome highlights maker and high flying tipster in our betting league.
TJ DeSantis - of Sherdog Radio fame.

TheGarv’s picks
UFC 77 promises to be explosive, and there are two fights that are a lock if you want to bet. The first lock is Vera over Sylvia. This is a fight you need to bet the farm on. Bet the farm, bet your house. Hell even bet your wife, because you can’t lose. Vera truly is the second coming of Fedor and he’s going to show the world on October 20th. I expect him to chop down Tim with leg kicks and overhand rights. Vera by KO round 2.

The second lock is Anderson Silva over Rich Franklin. I love Rich, he is one of my favorite fighters but he just doesn’t match up well with the Spider. After the brutal ownage in their first fight, I don’t see any way possible for Rich to win this. I think the second fight is going to look similar to the first, with Anderson dominating on the feet, and Rich unable to get it to the ground. I think Rich will last into the second or third round before being KO’d.

Those are TheGARV’s picks.

Boondock’s picks
UFC 77 is upon us and I have to admit that this is one of the harder cards when it comes to making my picks. Vera vs. Sylvia: I’d have to say this fight is a virtual crap shoot as to who’ll win… and as we all know, when it comes to crap shooting, never doubt Sylvia. However, I’m not so sure this time and neither fighter steps into the octagon with any momentum. Vera has been out of the cage for quite a while as has Sylvia after recovering from a back injury (that I’m sure was a result of not having the belt strap around to support him through his daily routine). So Ring rust vs. Back injury? I’ll take Vera but I don’t think it’ll be the walk in the park some are telling us. And Vera’s not the second coming of Fedor… only Fedor is good enough to be the second coming of himself.

Last time we saw Franklin vs. Silva we were shocked to see Rich going down faster than Tito’s girlfriend. And while I see Silva winning this fight I don’t see another Tyler Durden style beat down like we saw last time. What made that fight the train wreck that it turned into was Silva’s skill and an absolutely horrible game plan by Franklin’s corner… unless blocking Thai knees with your ribs and nose is some sort of Krav Maga defense gone wrong. All the same, I still think Silva wins this but I would bet someone else’s life (not mine) that Rich takes it to the ground to use his size to try and gNp a victory. He could get one. Then again, Rich could very well be getting another kneecap instead of a nightcap to help him sleep on fight night.
And finally the lock of the night: Okami.

Long Live MMA!
Boondock

TJ’s Picks
UFC 77 isn’t the strongest card of the year. Nevertheless, a few fights definately have the ingredients to make for some wars.

In the main event Rich Franklin looks to get his title back against current champion Anderson Silva. The first time these guys met Franklin was over-whelmed. The Ohio based fighter walked in to the clinch thinking he would find success there. Instead of success he found hard knees to the face.

For Rich to win he needs to fight smart. Franklin is a smart fighter and I expect him to look to trade at first and then get on the inside with underhooks. “Ace” needs to stay away from the knees and kicks of Silva. If he can do this I think that he can wear Anderson down and get the fight to the floor.

Unfortunatly for Franklin, Silva doesn’t allow that. Anderson will utilize the clinch again. Silva will land shots to the body and this will hurt Rich in the later rounds. I expect Anderson to hurt Rich through out the first couple of rounds. In the third Rich will score a takedown, get stood up, and Silva will stop Franklin again via TKO.

Sylvia Vera is a pickem in my opinion. Vera will look to land low kicks and use his speed. If he is successful I expect him to win a decision. One hard punch from Sylvia could end this fight. But I think Vera is smart enough and wins a decision.

UPSET PICK: Matthew Grice over Jason Black.

Black looked zapped in his fight with Thiago Tavares. If Black is anything like that Saturday night look for Grice to take this fight. At +240 you’re silly not to throw at least 50 on this fight

Mike’s picks
For me, the big pick of UFC77 is Brandon Vera. Now first off, let me say this is a pick that does leave me doubting myself somewhat. My justification is basically that he’s a lot more skilled than big Tim but then so (supposedly) was Andre Arlovski. Still, I am putting my doubts aside and going for the Truth, because after a pretty uninspiring debut against Fabiano Scherner, I have been very impressed. He’s polished off two of Sylvia’s former opponents (Mir and Silva) in 4 minutes combined and in general, I think he’s a superior fighter. REMEMBER, you don’t need to KO or sub someone to win a fight - you just need to beat them. Vera decision : leg kicks.

Secondly I’m going for Okami over McDonald. He’s just bigger and better with more power. I can’t see McDonald winning by sub (his only chance) and I can see Okami winning by either sub, decision or KO.

Silva over Franklin. I really don’t know how Franklin could win the fight. He’s just outmatched in every area. Sorry Rich but I don’t see any way you win and considering the way the last fight went, I can’t believe Silva is only -220.

Doug’s picks
I think UFC 77 is the best event for betting I have seen in a long time. If you are a true MMA fan, then the 4 main fights are all intriguing matchups.

I have strong opinions on three of the four, the exception being Starnes vs Belcher. Although I favor Starnes, both guys are talented but unproven in my eyes. So, I will take a pass on this one and invest in the other three.

Let’s start with the Championship fight. Here’s the deal. If you think Rich Franklin is the same fighter he was before the first fight (just as good now as he was then,) you have to bet him. 2-1 is a dream. I, however, believe that the beating Silva gave him that night ended the career of the championship level Rich Franklin. Silva has moved forward in his development as a complete fighter, while Franklin has fought to regain his confidence. You can make a case that Franklin is bigger and will take him down etc… but I see it as Silva is at a completely different level than Franklin, physically and mentally. I’m taking Spider.

Everyone hates Tim Sylvia, but I don’t get it. Sylvia is one of the most resilient fighters we have ever seen, he uses his strengths better than any fighter I can think of, and he’s a hard working fool. No way Vera should be favored over big Timmy. Even if you buy into all the Vera hype, that should make him about even up with the former champion-at best! Tim’s loss to Couture looks a lot better now that Randy tore through Gonzaga. Fighting styles will matter in this one. Expect Vera to have a similar plan that Couture used to defeat Sylvia, except more knees in close. Sylvia will be ready for it, and you can bet your last tater that he won’t fall into that trap again. Look for Sylvia to use his size effectively as he controls the pace. Sylvia will frustrate Vera and take him off his game. Easy win for Sylvia. Big Bet!!!

Okami is physically superior to Jason MacDonald. MacDonald lacks the crisp, effective punching that he will need to keep the Japanese mauler off him. The combination of a physically stronger fighter facing a submission fighter is a profit machine. Okami will bull his way to MacDonald’s chest whenever he feels like it, where he can take him down and gnp as long as he wants. Some say that Okami is a slow starter, but here’s the secret…Okami knows he’s strong enough to escape submission attempts once the fighter start getting sweaty. He keeps himself out of trouble until everyone’s good a warm, then goes to work. Bet Okami with confidence.

Best Bet: Tim Sylvia
Good Bets: Okami and Silva

Records (Starting balance $200)
TheGarv: 0-0 (0%) Balance $200 - making his debut
Mike: 42-18 (80%) Balance $390.52, Total Amount Bet $3690
Boondock: 32-43 (44%) Balance $1977.75, Total Amount Bet $3911
Doug: 19-13 (59%) Balance $233.85, Total Amount Bet $436
TJ DeSantis: 9-8 (53%) Balance $632, Total Amount Bet $1990
(see more stats in game)

UFC 77 Betting Summary for the Fantasy Betting League
Note: These bets don’t necessarily correspond to who the tipsters have picked in their summaries above.

TheGarv: $50 Silva, $50 Vera
Mike: $200 Silva, $80 Vera, $50 Okami
Boondock: $500 Okami, $50 Franklin, $25 Belcher, $150 Sylvia
Doug: $100 Sylvia, $50 Okami, $50 Silva
TJ DeSantis: $100 Sylvia, $100 MacDonald, $100 Grice

With thanks….
Thanks to the tipsters for taking part - please show them some love and visit their respective ventures.

Doug - visit zewkey.com for betting news.
TheGarv - check him out on YouTube .
Boondock - visit his myspace page
TJ DeSantis - check out the Sherdog Radio network Monday through Friday.