MMA Blog

April 5, 2007

UFC Fight Night Betting Tipsters Panel

Filed under: UFC Predictions, MMA Betting News — MrRiddum @ 7:40 pm

Welcome again to the Fantasy MMA Betting League tipsters panel!

Just a quick one for UFC Fight Night 9, with the regular deadly duo but no guest tipsters this time around.

Our Panel
Regular tipsters
Mike (me) - of mmagame.com. Full time MMA fanatic but mediocre tipster.
Doug - proprietor of Zewkey.com. Top tipster and MMA betting expert.

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The Odds
+130 Melvin Guillard vs Joe Stevenson -150
+385 Justin McCully vs Antoni Hardonk -465
+170 D Mishima vs Kenny Florian -200
+110 Forrest Petz vs Kuniyoshi Hironaka -130
+200 Seth Petruzelli vs Wilson Gouveia -240
+140 Keita Nakamura vs Drew Fickett -160
+235 Naoyuki Kotani vs Thiago Tavares -275
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Predictions
So on to the picks…

Doug’s picks
UFN 9 has some competitive fights on the card. There are a lot of lesser known fighters mixing it up and the true MMA geeks, surely, have the opportunity to make some money. All these fights have playable numbers. I’m going to stick to the headliners on this event. Joe Stevenson vs Melvin Guillard:
It’s the classic matchup of the striker vs the wrestler, and the “showboat” against the “blue-collar” guy. Any half-ass MMA fan/bettor can make a case for either fighter to win this bout. Styles are important, sure, but this fight will be determined by which fighter can impose his style on the other. Guillard is the faster, quicker fighter without doubt. I don’t like Joe at 155, and I think that he will be surprised to find Guillard holding the strength advantage too. Melvin will dominate the fight standing and when/if Stevenson gets the takedown Guillard will be able to gain control of the ground game too. Guillard’s powerful combination of strength and quickness will be too much for Joe. Note: I am aware of the “Melvin’s not training hard” rumors, I don’t buy it.

Dokonjonosuke Mishima vs Kenny Florian
Kenny Florian steps back into the ring for the first time since his loss to Sherk. Florian is a dedicated professional and he will be a better fighter when he takes on Doko Mishima tonight. Mishima is not one of physically strong fighters that present problems to Florian. He does not have enough power earn Kenny’s respect. Florian should be able to control the stand up and overwhelm Mishima with his striking, softening him up enough to set up a submission.

Drew Fickett vs Keita Nakamura
Wrestling war. Both fighters prefer the submission game; Fickett has a slight edge in striking. Fickett has faced much better competition with several solid wins. K-Taro struggled against Larson, another wrestler, last time out and this could very well be deja vu all over again for him. Take it easy on this one, definitely could go either way. I like Fickett to earn a decision.


Mike’s picks
I think you could make a nice profit on this event if you knew what you were doing… Unfortunately I don’t think I’m quite there yet to risk the real mulah!

Seth Petruzelli vs Wilson Gouveia.
I’m picking Gouveia in this fight as my big bet for the evening. He’s only around -240 and at those odds I think he’s a great pick over Seth. He gave Keith Jardine a run for his money and as far as I can remember, Seth has not really showed anything at all in the UFC.

D Mishima vs Kenny Florian
I’m going with Florian here. I’m just not seeing how Mishima wins the fight apart from a UD and I think Kenny has just as much chance of winning a decision. Again I’m going for a favourite here but I’m aiming to prove that you shouldn’t always bet on the odds if you want to win some money! And to round that theory off….

Melvin Guillard vs Joe Stevenson
I’m taking Stevenson here at -150. Seems like good odds to me… I have to admit that I have been swayed somewhat (or more accurately I’ve had my opinion re-affirmed) by the messageboards and tales of Melvin training with kickboxers and being taken down at will by rookies. I’m going with Joe but I think it’s going to be a good fight!

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Summary of picks
The following bets have been placed in our MMA Fantasy Betting League. All users start with a fantasy balance of $200. You can join for free here.

Doug from Zewkey.com
Current Balance $223.50
$10 Florian
$10 Melvin
$10 Fickett
Mike from MMAGame.com
Current Balance $284.74
$100 on Gouveia
$25 on Stevenson
$25 on Florian

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Last event - WEC

Both Mike and Doug went 100% in the last event

Mike: $77.70 profit off $130 of bets
Doug : $23.50 profit off $20 of bets

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