Welcome again to the Fantasy MMA Betting League tipsters panel!
At the time of writing, the odds provided by BetOnFighting were as follows.
+215 Michael Bisping vs Rashad Evans -275
+125 Thiago Silva vs Houston Alexander -155
+120 Joe Doerksen vs Ed Herman -150
+275 Ryo Chonan vs Karo Parisyan -345
-115 Spencer Fisher vs Frank Edgar -115
+150 Chris Lytle vs Thiago Alves -180
+450 Jason Reinhardt vs Joe Lauzon -600
+350 Luke Caudillo vs Marcus Aurelio -450
+215 Tamdan McCrory vs Akihiro Gono -275
UFC 78 is upon us! It’s been dubbed “Validation” which is a fancy word for “making something official.” I’m not quite sure what we’re making official with this card other than I swear it’s going to be the longest running commercial for UFC 79: Nemesis ever. I expect Dana to pull out all the stops in hyping the upcoming December event and Validation is a great way to start. I also hear that some of you are disappointed with the UFC 78 fight card, but let’s not let that get in the way of the amazing knowledge that I’m about to drop on you.
HOUSTON ALEXANDER vs THIAGO SILVA
Alexander is known for one thing, his power. Just ask Sakara. Or even ask The Dean of Mean, who woke up from his fight with Alexander in the rafters after catching a shoryuken uppercut to the chin. No one doubts that Alexander throws harder than most we’ve seen lately. Only problem is, we haven’t seen much of him and certainly we have no idea how good he really is on the ground.
That’s where Thiago Silva comes in. I think Silva will test Alexander and hopefully put Houston on his back so we can see what type of grappling pedigree he has. I actually like Silva in this fight and if he comes in with a good game plan, he has a great chance of answering the question of, “just how good is Houston Alexander?”
Then again, if Silva comes in and tries to trade punch for punch… well, let’s just say he won’t be the first Silva from Chute Boxe to take a canvas nap this year.
MICHAEL BISPING vs RASHAD EVANS
So here it is folks, a TUFfers delight. Two TUF champions finally getting into the cage to see who’s the toughest of the TUF.
Evans will be again trying to prove that he’s an exciting fighter and comes in with some added confidence and big fight experience after his draw with Tito.
Bisping, on the other hand, will be hungry for a win after coming off a recent loss to Matt Hamm…. wait a second, scratch that.
I’m not really sure who to pick in this match up and therefore I’ll do what I’ve always done in tough decisions like these… consult the great songs of Mary Poppins. And what would she tell us? “A spoonful
of Sugar helps the medicine go down.”
And therefore, Sugar puts the Count on the floor and works him. The judges might attempt to hand Bisping another victory but it’ll look strange seeing Big John trying to hold The Count’s hand up while Bisping lays flat on his back unconscious.
KARO PARISYIAN vs RYO CHONAN
Don’t expect a slugfest and don’t expect a knock-out in this one. This fight will go to the ground, stay there, and most likely the decision will be put in the judges hands. We could be in for some great judo throws and I expect to see some fireworks since Karo’s long-time best buddy, Nate Diaz, will be in “The Heat’s” corner to cheer him on.
As for Chonan… gravity defying sub aside, the Piranha’s in hot water in this one. I called Chonan personally to ask him to try another flying heel-hook but he didn’t return my phone calls, or my letters, or my notes
on his car, or even my late night visits. All I got was a letter from his lawyer and now I apparently can’t watch this fight within 30 yards of the Piranha.
Regardless, I see Karo winning this battle, and I do think it will be a war. Chonan was a good signing for the UFC and hopefully we’ll see him at his best, in which case both fighters will be in for a long night.
So there it is! Have fun watching the fights, tip your waitresses, and make sure and watch my new HL video: http://youtube.com/watch?v=FQeq9SLyFOI
Long Live MMA!
Unfortunately, I don’t see much profit to be made at UFC 78. None of the underdogs seem to have much of a chance, in my mind.
I like Spencer Fisher to beat Frankie Edgar. Edgar is solid fighter with recent victory over Tyson Griffin, which says alot about his ability. Griffin’s ground game is very good and he could end up with a decision, but I think that Fisher is just a better “fighter.” I have watched Fisher develop an interesting attack to go along with a very athletic-style defense, what does that mean? He simply does what it takes to get himself in position to control the fight. Fisher wins what should be a great fight to watch.
Thiago Alves and Chris Lytle are very similar fighters, in that they both have struggled when opposed by quality opponents. Thiago is still learning and he should benefit from each of those losses. He’s only 24, with his best fighting still ahead of him. Lytle is a true pro and we know what to expect from him on Saturday night, but he will struggle against the faster and stronger (read younger) Alves. Easy win for Thiago.
Rashad Evans should handle Bisping easily in what should be a replay of the Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera snoozefest. Bisping’s only true weapon is his ground n pound, but I cannot envision any scenario where he is able to take Rashad down and maintain control long enough to do any damage. Bisping’s punching is
too sloppy to give Evans trouble in the standup and Rashad will school him on the mat. Tough night to be “the Count.” The only thing I don’t like about Rashad are his odds.
Well, this is a great card with some “compelling matchups” as a lot of experts like to say. Even the main event is a good fight - I think the fact that it is not quite main event quality is distracting people from that fact.
Having said that, the matchups are all close and consequently pretty hard to bet on. The one bet that jumped out at me was Joe Doerksen at +120. Doerksen is a guy who ran Nate Marquardt and Joe Riggs close, whilst he’s beaten guys like Kang, Cote, McGivern etc. I thought this was a good pick before I heard
that he’d already beaten Herman once before, so that solidified it for me.
Apart from that, Thiago Alves looks a decent bet (although not a great one). Lytle is a tough, tough guy, who’s only been finished once. The thing is, he’s also lost 13 times by decision and I think that will likely happen again here. Alves is more active and more powerful and I see him just peppering Lytle with more shots and out muscling him.
Rashad looks good in the main event and considering how heavily favoured he is amongst the fans, that’s incredible odds. The thing is, Rashad is a very hit and miss fighter and is on my list of “never bet for or against these guys”. In short, I’m not touching it with Mauro’s 25cm pole.
I also think I’ll have a little dabble on Spencer Fisher. I love Frank Edgar but I just have a feeling that Fisher will out strike him and stuff the takedowns. Not a big bet on this one though.
And last but not least Thiago Silva can have some of my good lovin too. I am just not sold on Houston Alexander at all and even though I’m not sold on Silva either, I’m going with a small bet on him. As soon as someone employs something resembling a gameplan in a fight against Mr Alexander, it should be the end of the hype.
UFC 77 Betting Summary
Mike: $25 Silva, $75 Doerksen, $25 Fisher, $25 Alves
Boondock: $5 Caudillo, $5 Reinhardt, $50 Parisyan, $25 Silva, $50 Evans
Doug: Fisher $40, Alves $40, Rashad $40