MMA Blog

February 1, 2013

UFC 156 Betting Tips

Filed under: MMA Opinions, MMA Betting News — MrRiddum @ 4:48 pm

UFC 156
Featherweight Championship Bout
Jose Aldo vs Frankie Edgar

Jose Aldo is going in as the favourite in the fight against Frankie Edgar. I wouldn’t be the one to place money on Aldo. Aldo as much as he is a great all round fighter has always has questions about his cardio against someone like Edgar that could be a huge issue. Edgar is notorious for being able to take big damage and keep on going at the same lightning pace at the start of the fight. Edgars wrestling is also a factor in the fight. Aldo has great takedown defence but Edgar is very hard to predict and has taken down a lot bigger men than Aldo in the past. Edgars only real flaw against Aldo is the fact that Aldo can throw heat in his leg kicks that could really effect his speed and bounce. I would still say that Ben Henderson hits just as hard as Aldo with kicks and they didn’t really effect Frankie. That is not to say Aldo can’t beat Edgar but if you wanted value for money it would be Edgar i would be betting on. He is going off at 9/5 on some betting sites which is a steal considering the two very close fights he fought against Ben Henderson. Pretty good value for money if you put him on an accumulator.

Heavyweight Bout
Antonio Silva v Alistair Overeem

This fight here is one that i do believe the odds reflect the fight correctly for those interested in MMA Betting. Overeem destroyed Brock in his first fight in the UFC. He is a K-1 level striker with a good ground game and able to stop the takedown. Silva has a real problem on his hands here. After being brutally beaten down by now UFC Champion Cain Velasquez his last fight was less than convincing to most people. Silva is most known for his win over Fedor but that was quite a while ago now and since then he lost against Daniel Cormier and Cain Velasquez who are both at the top of the food chain as is Overeem so i would expect this to be one sided and ended inside of a round. As this is a heavyweight fight i would be betting on the KO finish and Overeem to be the one landing the shot to end it. Overeem ending it in the first round is going off at around Evens so that would be the bet i would take.

Light Heavyweight Bout
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira v Rashad Evans

Both fighters in this fight are coming off a long lay off from the octagon. Evans is coming off a loss to Jon Jones and Nogueria is coming off a win against Tito Ortiz. Evans in my book is the more accomplished fighter with the better skills and this reflects in his odds. He is a huge favourite against Nogueria and to be honest i can see why. Nogueira is a tough durable fighter but i feel his best years are behind him. He has the boxing and a great ground game when it comes to submissions but i really do believe his lack of speed is really going to hurt him against Evans. They could be a shock on the cards but i really do not believe this will be that shock. I have no idea if Nogueria can take the damage that Evans can dish out with his knockout power. I think Nogueria will survive Evans but lose a lopsided decision which is going off at 1/2 on most major betting websites.

Welterweight Bout
Demian Maia v Jon Fitch

Now this is a real pick’em fight. The best submissions in the UFC against the best submission defence in the UFC. Maia is 2-0 at welterweight and is looking to make a run for the title. He looked very impressive in his 2 fights. Maia has been really successful in his takedowns and the fight finishes not long after that. Fitch though has great submission defence to the point that trying to choke him out is just a waste of energy. Maia is at a completely different level when it comes to the ground game that Fitch has fought but it will be a test. This one could go either way between the two of them and Fitch is the favourite. If Maia is to win this fight i would say he would need an early submission which he has the skills to do. He is going off at 8/5 to win the fight and 4/1 to win via submission. Where as Fitch is going off at 2/3 for a decision victory. Its a pick’em and if you are really wanting to bet on it i would leave it off any accumulator you do but go for a 4/1 submission victory for Maia.

If i was to bet on it i would have a bet on Frankie Edgar to win, Overeem to win via KO, Evans to win, Joseph Benavidez to win and Jacob Volkmann to win.

Betting advice provided by dinoo at MMA Tycoon - The MMA Management Game

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Alternative view from Deadly Dirk

UFC 156 Preview

UFC 156 gets underway this Saturday live from the Mandalay Events Centre in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC 146 is perhaps the biggest card to date since UFC 100 and has some of the most high profile names in the sport competing including Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar, Alistair Overeem and Rashad Evans to name just a few. Let’s have a look through the fight card to see who might be puling out the wins tomorrow night.

Joseph Benavidez (16-3) vs Ian McCall (11-3-1) ? Flyweight 125lbs

Kicking off the main show we have an outsanding matchup featuring two guys right at the top of the flyweight division. Benavidez will be looking to use his outstanding boxing and wrestling to impose his will on McCall who comes into the fight as the favourite at -227 with the bookmakers. Coming from Team Alpha Male, Benavidez also possesses one of the most lethal guillotine chokes in the game and would like nothing better to sink it in on his opponent, Uncle Creepy. Make no mistake though, Ian McCall is no joke and took the current champion Demetrius Johnson to a draw less than a year ago, it may just be that Benavidez does everything that McCall does just a little bit better making him the underdog at +220. One things for sure though, this should be a hell of a way to kick off the main card.
Prediction: Benavidez via Decision.

Jon Fitch (24-4-1) vs Demian Maia (17-4) ? Welterweight 170lbs

Jon Fitch is one of the best wrestlers in the division who’s favourite way to win fights is to get on top of his opponent, break their will and grind out a victory. It may not be pretty at times but it’s hard to ignore the fact that it gets the job done. Maia however is not your normal grappler, he has some of the best Brazilian jui jitsu in the sport and has won numerous grappling tournaments around the world. He’s more than capable of cranking on an arm or finding a choke from the bottom position should Fitch apply his normal gameplan. Maia’s career stalled a little at the higher class of middlweight where he struggled against some of the larger wrestlers in the division, ever since dropping down to welterweight though he’s looked unbelievable, finishing both of his opponents quickly in the first round.

Often in these grappling matchups it can turn into a kickboxing bout with both guys very aware of their opponents ground game. If that is the case I would have to say that Maia has greatly improved his striking since joining the UFC and would most probably have the edge there. Maia definitely has the tools to win this bout but personally I have to go with Fitch who more times than not find a way to beat an opponent who at least on paper looks to have the edge in skill. Jon Fitch is currently the favourite in Vegas at -188 but you may well be tempted by the somewhat generous odds of +186 for Demian Maia.
Prediction: Fitch via Decision

Alistair Overeem (36-11) vs Antonio Silva (17-4) ? Heavyweight 265lbs

Make no mistake about it, Alistair Overeem has some of the best kickboxing in the sport, depending on who you speak to some would argue he has the very best, period. Overeem has been competing in mixed martial arts since the late 90’s winning numerous titles including the Dream and Strikeforce heavyweight MMA titles, not to mention his European ADCC grappling and K-1 kickboxing title. Originally starting his career as a light heavyweight, Overeem made a move full time to the heavyweight division back in June 2007. He’s 12-1 since then with the sole loss coming over 5 years ago and the wins including high profile names such as Brock Lesnar, Fabricio Werdum, Mark Hunt and Brett Rogers.

His opponent will be Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva, a gargantuan heavyweight and a BJJ blackbelt who likes to use his grappling expertise to get the fight to the ground, work a good position and pound you out with the cement blocks that he calls fists, evident in his upset over Fedor Emilanenko a couple of years back and more recently against heavyweight up and comer Travis Browne.

Overeem will have a considerable advantage standing and should be able to pick Silva apart hoping to land that knockout blow that he’s done so many times in the past and comes into this bout as the -325 favourite. Overeem has greatly improved his takedown defence in recent years and should have the ability to keep the fight standing but you can be sure if Silva does manage to get on top of Overeem it’s going to cause him a lot of problems as one of the real questions remaining about Overeem is how will he handle adversity? Will he bounce back or will he perhaps crumble like he did earlier on in his career and make the odds of +325 for Silva look like an interesting bet?
Prediciton: Overeem via TKO (2nd Round)

Rashad Evans (17-2-1) vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5) ? Light Heavyweight 205lbs

The former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans returns to the octagon to take on Little Nog in what the bookmakers see as a lopsided affair with Evans the -445 favourite and Nogeuira the underdog at +415.

Evans is one of the fastest guys in the division and should have the edge in striking against the technically sound Nogueira. You’d also have to say he has the power advantage and certainly has a big advantage in wrestling which should allow him to take down Nogueira at will if he chooses to do so.

Being a Nogueira brother though, the one thing Rashad won’t have over the Brazilian is heart and determination. You can be sure that unless Rashad gets the finish or the final buzzer goes, Lil Nog will be in this fight and will not bow out easily. He possesses some fantastic grappling skills himself and while her perhaps will not have the wrestling to get the fight to the floor himself he will look to attack at any opportunity should Evans decide to take him down. It’s hard to argue that Evans is not an overwhelming favourite in this fight but I do think the odds are a a generous, still I’d find it hard to bet against Evans in this one.
Prediction: Evans via Decision

Jose Aldo (Champion ? 22-1) vs Frankie Edgar (15-3-1) Featherweight Title 145lbs

The main event features the Brazilian wonderkid Jose Aldo taking on New Jersey’s Frankie Edgar, a guy who never knows when to quit. Aldo has only lost once in his career and that was over 7 years ago at a small show in Brazil. Since making the move over to America and competing in the WEC and UFC he has been on a tear beating everyone in his path and often in spectacular fashion. At just 26 years of age the crazy thing is we probably haven’t even seen the best of Jose Aldo yet, a tenacious striker who probably has some of the best kicks in the world, something he puts down largely due to his soccer background. The only knock on Aldo in recent times has been a suggestion of poor cardio which was brought up after a win over Mark Hominick where Aldo crushed the challenger for 4 rounds only to take some big damage himself in the final round after the Brazilian tired. It was still a comfortable decision win for the champion though.

Frankie Edgar has recently dropped down to Featherweight, a more natural weight for his body size, after previously competing at Lightweight where he is a former champion. The main standouts from Edgar’s career up until now has been his impressive speed and cardio allowing him to get in and out on his opponents and really push the pace with his boxing and takedowns. The other thing that stands out is his ability to absorb punishment and somehow keep pushing forward and coming back even stronger, never more evident than his bouts with Gray Maynard.

This really should be an explosive affair and it’s one of those fights where anything could happen. Most would argue that the longer the fight goes it could favour Edgar with his cardio and heart but the biggest difference perhaps between Aldo and Frankie’s recent opponents is that Aldo is a finisher. If Frankie gets hurt like he has so many times before Aldo is not the sort of man to allow him to work his way back into the fight and will pounce at the earliest opportunity, combined with the deadly leg kicks that the Brazilian will be throwing Frankie may find it hard to show the same speed he has done so many times in the past. Frankie will give 100% as long as this fight continues but no matter how much he wants to come back against Jose Aldo, the champion may simply not allow him to do so. I’d find it very hard to bet against Frankie at the best of times but in this one I would have to go with the champion and favourite in Jose Aldo at -200. Those of you who love a good underdog story may want to side with Edgar at +190.
Prediction: Jose Aldo TKO (4th Round)

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