This weekend sees a big headliner at UFC 141 in Las Vegas for the traditional New Year’s UFC bash. In the main event we have Brock Lesnar taking on Alisair Overeem. Co-main is Nate Diaz against Donald Cerrone and there are some well known (and therefore well researched for betting) names on the undercard too. Here are the bouts:
VLADIMIR MATYUSHENKO +265
ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON -325
JIM HETTES +195
NAM PHAN -245
JUNIOR ASSUNCAO +245
ROSS PEARSON -305
ANTHONY NJOKUANI +145
DANNY CASTILLO -175
Looking at the big event, I’m going with Overeem. That is with a little trepidation given his performance against Wedum - i.e. he got taken down rather too easily. However, we have a serious problem on the Brock Lesnar side in the form of his chin. I ask myself, will Brock finish Overeem if we go to the mat? Probably not. So we’ll have plenty of action on the feet and in those periods, Overeem is going to connect. He’s also going to get hit, so it’s not out of the reals of possibility that Lesnar hurts him but playing the percentages, I’d bet on Overeem as a narrow favourite.
In the co-main event it’s hard to see Diaz winning. Cerrone has been on a tear and I see him probably taking a decision. Not sure it’s worth a bet to be honest.
Hendricks vs Fitch I think is probably worth a bet on Fitch. It’s one of those fights that you start second guessing yourself because it seems so obvious. I mean, OBVIOUSLY Fitch will win, right? So we then have to over analyse everything and end up deciding that Hendricks has a chance. No, he doesn’t, Fitch is going to win. Worth a bet.
The rest of the card I’m afraid that I’m not confident enough to offer up much advice, other than get yourself on youtube and watch some fights from the underdogs. All the favourites are beatable fighters so if you think you can see any weaknesses, get on it. One of those guys will probably lose - you just have to pick the right one.
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Since his brutal loss at UFC 100, Frank Mir has been borderline obsessed with beating UFC Heavyweight Champ Brock Lesnar.
But at UFC 111, Mir faces a man who he believes to be even more dangerous in Colorado, native and undefeated contender Shane Carwin in what could be the most explosive fight the UFC has seen in months.
The fight, which will take place on Saturday night at 10 pm in Newark, New Jersey’s Prudential Center, is scheduled for five rounds because it is for the Interim Heavyweight Title, but most MMA fans think it’s pretty much inevitable this time around that either Mir or Carwin is going down hard.
In his last bout Mir showed improved power and striking in a big win over feared striker Cheick Kongo by rear-naked choke.
Mir has also been power lifting harder than ever in an attempt to put himself in the same stratosphere as huge heavyweights like Carwin and Lesnar.
He’s done a great job of packing on muscle, and it shows. However, it doesn’t help sports betting fans’ confidence when they see Mir deadlifting the same weight that Carwin power cleaned in their UFC Primetime preview show.
Carwin (11-0 MMA record) has carried around more weight than Mir for much longer, and despite the likely close weigh-in numbers between the two, Carwin will have a definite strength and wrestling advantage.
Even so, Mir (13-4) is a decent favorite at -155 to +125 for Carwin, the underdog, going in to Saturday’s title fight.
That’s because Mir is more famous, talks a good game, and has the experience in big fights and jiu-jitsu that Carwin lacks.
Carwin should be able to power out of most submission attempts, however. He was able to get up after Gabriel Gonzaga cornered him on the ground at UFC 96 through sheer power before knocking Gonzaga out, and Gonzaga is as good or better on the mats as Mir according to many fans.
All it takes for Carwin to win is one well-placed shot from his freakishly large hands to put just about anyone in MMA down and/or out, and Carwin will look for the big shot all night against Mir.
Mir’s striking has definitely improved, but his quickness is not going to be an issue for Carwin, and Carwin has the power to come out on top in most exchanges.
Carwin may not be the UFC betting favorite going in, but with his power and his history of winning every single fight early in the first round in his career, his history is too strong to ignore in this one. Mir is improving every day, but the fact of the matter is that Carwin is a larger, more powerful fighter and those are never bad attributes to bet on.
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At the time of writing, the odds provided by BetOnFighting were as follows.
+215 Michael Bisping vs Rashad Evans -275
+125 Thiago Silva vs Houston Alexander -155
+120 Joe Doerksen vs Ed Herman -150
+275 Ryo Chonan vs Karo Parisyan -345
-115 Spencer Fisher vs Frank Edgar -115
+150 Chris Lytle vs Thiago Alves -180
+450 Jason Reinhardt vs Joe Lauzon -600
+350 Luke Caudillo vs Marcus Aurelio -450
+215 Tamdan McCrory vs Akihiro Gono -275
UFC 78 is upon us! It’s been dubbed “Validation” which is a fancy word for “making something official.” I’m not quite sure what we’re making official with this card other than I swear it’s going to be the longest running commercial for UFC 79: Nemesis ever. I expect Dana to pull out all the stops in hyping the upcoming December event and Validation is a great way to start. I also hear that some of you are disappointed with the UFC 78 fight card, but let’s not let that get in the way of the amazing knowledge that I’m about to drop on you.
HOUSTON ALEXANDER vs THIAGO SILVA
Alexander is known for one thing, his power. Just ask Sakara. Or even ask The Dean of Mean, who woke up from his fight with Alexander in the rafters after catching a shoryuken uppercut to the chin. No one doubts that Alexander throws harder than most we’ve seen lately. Only problem is, we haven’t seen much of him and certainly we have no idea how good he really is on the ground.
That’s where Thiago Silva comes in. I think Silva will test Alexander and hopefully put Houston on his back so we can see what type of grappling pedigree he has. I actually like Silva in this fight and if he comes in with a good game plan, he has a great chance of answering the question of, “just how good is Houston Alexander?”
Then again, if Silva comes in and tries to trade punch for punch… well, let’s just say he won’t be the first Silva from Chute Boxe to take a canvas nap this year.
MICHAEL BISPING vs RASHAD EVANS
So here it is folks, a TUFfers delight. Two TUF champions finally getting into the cage to see who’s the toughest of the TUF.
Evans will be again trying to prove that he’s an exciting fighter and comes in with some added confidence and big fight experience after his draw with Tito.
Bisping, on the other hand, will be hungry for a win after coming off a recent loss to Matt Hamm…. wait a second, scratch that.
I’m not really sure who to pick in this match up and therefore I’ll do what I’ve always done in tough decisions like these… consult the great songs of Mary Poppins. And what would she tell us? “A spoonful
of Sugar helps the medicine go down.â€
And therefore, Sugar puts the Count on the floor and works him. The judges might attempt to hand Bisping another victory but it’ll look strange seeing Big John trying to hold The Count’s hand up while Bisping lays flat on his back unconscious.
KARO PARISYIAN vs RYO CHONAN
Don’t expect a slugfest and don’t expect a knock-out in this one. This fight will go to the ground, stay there, and most likely the decision will be put in the judges hands. We could be in for some great judo throws and I expect to see some fireworks since Karo’s long-time best buddy, Nate Diaz, will be in “The Heat’s†corner to cheer him on.
As for Chonan… gravity defying sub aside, the Piranha’s in hot water in this one. I called Chonan personally to ask him to try another flying heel-hook but he didn’t return my phone calls, or my letters, or my notes
on his car, or even my late night visits. All I got was a letter from his lawyer and now I apparently can’t watch this fight within 30 yards of the Piranha.
Regardless, I see Karo winning this battle, and I do think it will be a war. Chonan was a good signing for the UFC and hopefully we’ll see him at his best, in which case both fighters will be in for a long night.
Unfortunately, I don’t see much profit to be made at UFC 78. None of the underdogs seem to have much of a chance, in my mind.
I like Spencer Fisher to beat Frankie Edgar. Edgar is solid fighter with recent victory over Tyson Griffin, which says alot about his ability. Griffin’s ground game is very good and he could end up with a decision, but I think that Fisher is just a better “fighter.” I have watched Fisher develop an interesting attack to go along with a very athletic-style defense, what does that mean? He simply does what it takes to get himself in position to control the fight. Fisher wins what should be a great fight to watch.
Thiago Alves and Chris Lytle are very similar fighters, in that they both have struggled when opposed by quality opponents. Thiago is still learning and he should benefit from each of those losses. He’s only 24, with his best fighting still ahead of him. Lytle is a true pro and we know what to expect from him on Saturday night, but he will struggle against the faster and stronger (read younger) Alves. Easy win for Thiago.
Rashad Evans should handle Bisping easily in what should be a replay of the Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera snoozefest. Bisping’s only true weapon is his ground n pound, but I cannot envision any scenario where he is able to take Rashad down and maintain control long enough to do any damage. Bisping’s punching is
too sloppy to give Evans trouble in the standup and Rashad will school him on the mat. Tough night to be “the Count.” The only thing I don’t like about Rashad are his odds. Mike’s picks
Well, this is a great card with some “compelling matchups” as a lot of experts like to say. Even the main event is a good fight - I think the fact that it is not quite main event quality is distracting people from that fact.
Having said that, the matchups are all close and consequently pretty hard to bet on. The one bet that jumped out at me was Joe Doerksen at +120. Doerksen is a guy who ran Nate Marquardt and Joe Riggs close, whilst he’s beaten guys like Kang, Cote, McGivern etc. I thought this was a good pick before I heard
that he’d already beaten Herman once before, so that solidified it for me.
Apart from that, Thiago Alves looks a decent bet (although not a great one). Lytle is a tough, tough guy, who’s only been finished once. The thing is, he’s also lost 13 times by decision and I think that will likely happen again here. Alves is more active and more powerful and I see him just peppering Lytle with more shots and out muscling him.
Rashad looks good in the main event and considering how heavily favoured he is amongst the fans, that’s incredible odds. The thing is, Rashad is a very hit and miss fighter and is on my list of “never bet for or against these guys”. In short, I’m not touching it with Mauro’s 25cm pole.
I also think I’ll have a little dabble on Spencer Fisher. I love Frank Edgar but I just have a feeling that Fisher will out strike him and stuff the takedowns. Not a big bet on this one though.
And last but not least Thiago Silva can have some of my good lovin too. I am just not sold on Houston Alexander at all and even though I’m not sold on Silva either, I’m going with a small bet on him. As soon as someone employs something resembling a gameplan in a fight against Mr Alexander, it should be the end of the hype.
As Randy Couture leaves the UFC to pursue a bout with Fedor Emelianenko, pundits and hardcore fans alike are left wondering whether the fight will be a financial success. Will this be the first bout in MMA history to draw casual fans away from the UFC in significant numbers? No event to date has managed it, so why should this matchup be any different?
TheGarv’s picks UFC 77 promises to be explosive, and there are two fights that are a lock if you want to bet. The first lock is Vera over Sylvia. This is a fight you need to bet the farm on. Bet the farm, bet your house. Hell even bet your wife, because you can’t lose. Vera truly is the second coming of Fedor and he’s going to show the world on October 20th. I expect him to chop down Tim with leg kicks and overhand rights. Vera by KO round 2.
The second lock is Anderson Silva over Rich Franklin. I love Rich, he is one of my favorite fighters but he just doesn’t match up well with the Spider. After the brutal ownage in their first fight, I don’t see any way possible for Rich to win this. I think the second fight is going to look similar to the first, with Anderson dominating on the feet, and Rich unable to get it to the ground. I think Rich will last into the second or third round before being KO’d.
Those are TheGARV’s picks.
Boondock’s picks
UFC 77 is upon us and I have to admit that this is one of the harder cards when it comes to making my picks. Vera vs. Sylvia: I’d have to say this fight is a virtual crap shoot as to who’ll win… and as we all know, when it comes to crap shooting, never doubt Sylvia. However, I’m not so sure this time and neither fighter steps into the octagon with any momentum. Vera has been out of the cage for quite a while as has Sylvia after recovering from a back injury (that I’m sure was a result of not having the belt strap around to support him through his daily routine). So Ring rust vs. Back injury? I’ll take Vera but I don’t think it’ll be the walk in the park some are telling us. And Vera’s not the second coming of Fedor… only Fedor is good enough to be the second coming of himself.
Last time we saw Franklin vs. Silva we were shocked to see Rich going down faster than Tito’s girlfriend. And while I see Silva winning this fight I don’t see another Tyler Durden style beat down like we saw last time. What made that fight the train wreck that it turned into was Silva’s skill and an absolutely horrible game plan by Franklin’s corner… unless blocking Thai knees with your ribs and nose is some sort of Krav Maga defense gone wrong. All the same, I still think Silva wins this but I would bet someone else’s life (not mine) that Rich takes it to the ground to use his size to try and gNp a victory. He could get one. Then again, Rich could very well be getting another kneecap instead of a nightcap to help him sleep on fight night.
And finally the lock of the night: Okami.
Long Live MMA!
Boondock
TJ’s Picks
UFC 77 isn’t the strongest card of the year. Nevertheless, a few fights definately have the ingredients to make for some wars.
In the main event Rich Franklin looks to get his title back against current champion Anderson Silva. The first time these guys met Franklin was over-whelmed. The Ohio based fighter walked in to the clinch thinking he would find success there. Instead of success he found hard knees to the face.
For Rich to win he needs to fight smart. Franklin is a smart fighter and I expect him to look to trade at first and then get on the inside with underhooks. “Ace” needs to stay away from the knees and kicks of Silva. If he can do this I think that he can wear Anderson down and get the fight to the floor.
Unfortunatly for Franklin, Silva doesn’t allow that. Anderson will utilize the clinch again. Silva will land shots to the body and this will hurt Rich in the later rounds. I expect Anderson to hurt Rich through out the first couple of rounds. In the third Rich will score a takedown, get stood up, and Silva will stop Franklin again via TKO.
Sylvia Vera is a pickem in my opinion. Vera will look to land low kicks and use his speed. If he is successful I expect him to win a decision. One hard punch from Sylvia could end this fight. But I think Vera is smart enough and wins a decision.
UPSET PICK: Matthew Grice over Jason Black.
Black looked zapped in his fight with Thiago Tavares. If Black is anything like that Saturday night look for Grice to take this fight. At +240 you’re silly not to throw at least 50 on this fight
Mike’s picks
For me, the big pick of UFC77 is Brandon Vera. Now first off, let me say this is a pick that does leave me doubting myself somewhat. My justification is basically that he’s a lot more skilled than big Tim but then so (supposedly) was Andre Arlovski. Still, I am putting my doubts aside and going for the Truth, because after a pretty uninspiring debut against Fabiano Scherner, I have been very impressed. He’s polished off two of Sylvia’s former opponents (Mir and Silva) in 4 minutes combined and in general, I think he’s a superior fighter. REMEMBER, you don’t need to KO or sub someone to win a fight - you just need to beat them. Vera decision : leg kicks.
Secondly I’m going for Okami over McDonald. He’s just bigger and better with more power. I can’t see McDonald winning by sub (his only chance) and I can see Okami winning by either sub, decision or KO.
Silva over Franklin. I really don’t know how Franklin could win the fight. He’s just outmatched in every area. Sorry Rich but I don’t see any way you win and considering the way the last fight went, I can’t believe Silva is only -220.
Doug’s picks
I think UFC 77 is the best event for betting I have seen in a long time. If you are a true MMA fan, then the 4 main fights are all intriguing matchups.
I have strong opinions on three of the four, the exception being Starnes vs Belcher. Although I favor Starnes, both guys are talented but unproven in my eyes. So, I will take a pass on this one and invest in the other three.
Let’s start with the Championship fight. Here’s the deal. If you think Rich Franklin is the same fighter he was before the first fight (just as good now as he was then,) you have to bet him. 2-1 is a dream. I, however, believe that the beating Silva gave him that night ended the career of the championship level Rich Franklin. Silva has moved forward in his development as a complete fighter, while Franklin has fought to regain his confidence. You can make a case that Franklin is bigger and will take him down etc… but I see it as Silva is at a completely different level than Franklin, physically and mentally. I’m taking Spider.
Everyone hates Tim Sylvia, but I don’t get it. Sylvia is one of the most resilient fighters we have ever seen, he uses his strengths better than any fighter I can think of, and he’s a hard working fool. No way Vera should be favored over big Timmy. Even if you buy into all the Vera hype, that should make him about even up with the former champion-at best! Tim’s loss to Couture looks a lot better now that Randy tore through Gonzaga. Fighting styles will matter in this one. Expect Vera to have a similar plan that Couture used to defeat Sylvia, except more knees in close. Sylvia will be ready for it, and you can bet your last tater that he won’t fall into that trap again. Look for Sylvia to use his size effectively as he controls the pace. Sylvia will frustrate Vera and take him off his game. Easy win for Sylvia. Big Bet!!!
Okami is physically superior to Jason MacDonald. MacDonald lacks the crisp, effective punching that he will need to keep the Japanese mauler off him. The combination of a physically stronger fighter facing a submission fighter is a profit machine. Okami will bull his way to MacDonald’s chest whenever he feels like it, where he can take him down and gnp as long as he wants. Some say that Okami is a slow starter, but here’s the secret…Okami knows he’s strong enough to escape submission attempts once the fighter start getting sweaty. He keeps himself out of trouble until everyone’s good a warm, then goes to work. Bet Okami with confidence.
Best Bet: Tim Sylvia
Good Bets: Okami and Silva
Records (Starting balance $200) TheGarv: 0-0 (0%) Balance $200 - making his debut Mike: 42-18 (80%) Balance $390.52, Total Amount Bet $3690 Boondock: 32-43 (44%) Balance $1977.75, Total Amount Bet $3911 Doug: 19-13 (59%) Balance $233.85, Total Amount Bet $436 TJ DeSantis: 9-8 (53%) Balance $632, Total Amount Bet $1990
(see more stats in game)
UFC 77 Betting Summary for the Fantasy Betting League
Note: These bets don’t necessarily correspond to who the tipsters have picked in their summaries above.
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If you’re having trouble deciding on your picks, check back later in the week and we’ll have an expert tipsters panel on our blog, featuring many of MMA’s favourite internet personalities.
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